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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Nate Maness won · U-DEC R3

Elo1478

Elo1506

Johnny MunozvsNate ManessUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan · Saturday, August 1, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Nate Maness won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJohnny Munoz: WrestlervsNate Maness: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Nate Maness wins(50.5%)

Actual result: Nate Maness wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nate Maness at -137 American odds

+$73 profit

$173 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Johnny Munoz threatens submissions; Nate Maness has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Johnny Munoz has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Nate Maness has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Johnny Munoz

Red Corner

Nate Maness

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-137

(58%)

1478

Elo

1506

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Johnny MunozL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jamey Simmons · Aug 21

KOvs Tony Gravely · Jun 22

vs Liudvik Sholinian · Nov 22

vs Daniel Santos · Jun 23

vs Aoriqileng · Oct 23

latest

Nate ManessW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tony Gravely · Sep 21

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Jun 22

SUBvs Tagir Ulanbekov · Nov 22

KOvs Mateus Mendonca · Oct 23

vs Jimmy Flick · Jun 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Johnny MunozMetricNate Maness

2.44

Strikes / min

3.14

2.66

Strikes absorbed / min

3.88

55%

Strike defense

42%

2.40

TDs / 15 min

0.68

45%

Takedown defense

80%

1.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.22evenly matched on net striking-0.74

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Johnny MunozNate Maness

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Johnny Munoz(6 fights)Nate Maness(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -27.4|Blue +27.4

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Johnny MunozTargetNate Maness

By target zone

53% acc · 37%

Head

24% acc · 43%

69% acc · 51%

Body

92% acc · 57%

75% acc · 12%

Leg

By position

40% acc · 33%

Distance

21% acc · 33%

95% acc · 41%

Clinch

88% acc · 67%

76% acc · 27%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Johnny Munoz rounds

even

Nate Maness rounds

Round 1Johnny Munoz edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control3:16

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Johnny Munoz edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control2:46

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:38Control

Round 3Johnny Munoz edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control3:40

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:51Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

49 / 78

Sig Strikes

21 / 50

67%

Sig Str %

40%

129 / 168

Total Strikes

158 / 194

2 / 16

TDs

1 / 1

10%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

9:42

Ctrl Time

1:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nate Maness	2 / 15	12 / 25	0 / 0	0
1	Johnny Munoz	19 / 38	51 / 78	1 / 6	0
2	Nate Maness	10 / 18	66 / 78	0 / 0	0
2	Johnny Munoz	14 / 22	33 / 42	1 / 7	0
3	Nate Maness	9 / 17	80 / 91	1 / 1	0
3	Johnny Munoz	16 / 18	45 / 48	0 / 3	1

Johnny Munoz

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6

Nate Maness

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights7