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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Johnny Munoz won · SUB R2
Elo1478
Johnny Munoz
Elo1405

Johnny MunozvsJamey SimmonsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · Saturday, August 7, 2021Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Johnny Munoz won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:35

Model Prediction: Johnny Munoz wins(78.2%)

Actual result: Johnny Munoz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Johnny Munoz at -350 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Johnny Munoz threatens submissions; Jamey Simmons has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Jamey Simmons has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Johnny Munoz
Red Corner
VS
Jamey Simmons
Blue Corner
-350
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+270
(27%)
1478
Elo
1405
33
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'6"
180.34 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Johnny MunozL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Nate Maness · Aug 20
L
KOvs Tony Gravely · Jun 22
W
vs Liudvik Sholinian · Nov 22
L
vs Daniel Santos · Jun 23
L
vs Aoriqileng · Oct 23
latest
Jamey Simmons
oldest →
L
KOvs Giga Chikadze · Nov 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Johnny MunozMetricJamey Simmons
2.44
Strikes / min
0.79
2.66
Strikes absorbed / min
1.92
55%
Strike defense
74%
2.40
TDs / 15 min
0.00
45%
Takedown defense
50%
1.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.22evenly matched on net striking-1.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1484 vs 1487Strikes2.8 vs 0.8Takedowns2.7 vs 0.0Sub Atts2.70 vs 0.00Form-1.0 vs -0.9
Johnny MunozJamey Simmons

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Johnny Munoz(6 fights)Jamey Simmons(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +73.3|Blue -73.3
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +98.0|Blue -98.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Johnny MunozTargetJamey Simmons

By target zone

6
10% acc · 43%
Head
4
13% acc · 57%
2
100% acc · 14%
Body
1
33% acc · 14%
6
75% acc · 43%
Leg
2
67% acc · 29%

By position

13
19% acc · 93%
Distance
7
19% acc · 100%
0
0% acc
Clinch
0
1
50% acc · 7%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Johnny Munoz rounds
0
even
0
Jamey Simmons rounds
Round 1Johnny Munoz edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control0:32
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Johnny Munoz edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns1
Control1:32
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
14 / 71
Sig Strikes
7 / 37
19.5%
Sig Str %
17.5%
24 / 85
Total Strikes
10 / 40
2 / 3
TDs
0 / 0
75%
TD %
—
3
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:04
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jamey Simmons6 / 317 / 320 / 00
1Johnny Munoz11 / 5615 / 621 / 20
2Jamey Simmons1 / 63 / 80 / 00
2Johnny Munoz3 / 159 / 231 / 13

Johnny Munoz

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights6

Jamey Simmons

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights2