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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Matthew Lopez won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1409

Elo1369

Johnny EduardovsMatthew LopezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · Saturday, June 3, 2017Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Matthew Lopez won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:57

Style matchupJohnny Eduardo: Well-roundedvsMatthew Lopez: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Matthew Lopez wins(58.7%)

Actual result: Matthew Lopez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matthew Lopez at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matthew Lopez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Johnny Eduardo is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Matthew Lopez has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Matthew Lopez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Johnny Eduardo

Red Corner

Matthew Lopez

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1409

Elo

1369

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'7"

180.34 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Johnny EduardoL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Eddie Wineland · May 14

SUBvs Aljamain Sterling · Dec 15

KOvs Manvel Gamburyan · Nov 16

SUBvs Nathaniel Wood · Jun 18

SUBvs Alejandro Perez · Oct 21

latest

Matthew LopezL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Rani Yahya · Jul 16

vs Mitch Gagnon · Dec 16

KOvs Raphael Assuncao · Nov 17

KOvs Alejandro Perez · Apr 18

vs Brad Katona · Dec 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Johnny EduardoMetricMatthew Lopez

2.95

Strikes / min

3.13

3.22

Strikes absorbed / min

3.73

63%

Strike defense

55%

0.22

TDs / 15 min

3.32

58%

Takedown defense

71%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.27evenly matched on net striking-0.60

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Johnny EduardoMatthew Lopez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Johnny Eduardo(8 fights)Matthew Lopez(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +39.6|Blue -39.6

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Johnny EduardoTargetMatthew Lopez

By target zone

48% acc · 69%

Head

75% acc · 100%

0% acc

Body

83% acc · 31%

Leg

By position

53% acc · 100%

Distance

33% acc · 9%

Clinch

Ground

87% acc · 91%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Johnny Eduardo rounds

even

Matthew Lopez rounds

Round 1Matthew Lopez edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

43Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:16Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 30

Sig Strikes

43 / 57

53%

Sig Str %

75%

16 / 30

Total Strikes

59 / 73

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Matthew Lopez	43 / 57	59 / 73	1 / 1	0
1	Johnny Eduardo	16 / 30	16 / 30	0 / 0	1

Johnny Eduardo

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights8

Matthew Lopez

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6