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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Johnny Bedford won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1354

Elo1352

Johnny BedfordvsMarcos ViniciusUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · Saturday, December 15, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Johnny Bedford won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:00

Model Prediction: Johnny Bedford wins(77.8%)

Actual result: Johnny Bedford wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Johnny Bedford at -265 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Johnny Bedford enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Johnny Bedford is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Marcos Vinicius has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Johnny Bedford has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Johnny Bedford has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Johnny Bedford

Red Corner

Marcos Vinicius

Blue Corner

-265

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+245

(29%)

1354

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Johnny BedfordL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Louis Gaudinot · Dec 11

SUBvs Bryan Caraway · Apr 13

KOvs Cody Gibson · Jun 14

SUBvs Rani Yahya · Sep 14

latest

Marcos Vinicius

oldest →

KOvs Wagner Campos · Jun 12

KOvs Ali Bagautinov · Sep 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Johnny BedfordMetricMarcos Vinicius

4.53

Strikes / min

1.93

1.75

Strikes absorbed / min

2.91

63%

Strike defense

47%

1.83

TDs / 15 min

0.00

62%

Takedown defense

25%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.78Δ 3.76 — meaningful gap-0.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Johnny BedfordMarcos Vinicius

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Johnny Bedford(5 fights)Marcos Vinicius(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +203.0|Blue -203.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Johnny BedfordTargetMarcos Vinicius

By target zone

56% acc · 79%

Head

29% acc · 50%

57% acc · 12%

Body

0% acc

60% acc · 9%

Leg

100% acc · 50%

By position

44% acc · 47%

Distance

21% acc · 75%

60% acc · 9%

Clinch

100% acc · 25%

79% acc · 44%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Johnny Bedford rounds

even

Marcos Vinicius rounds

Round 1Johnny Bedford edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control3:12

Knockdowns1

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Johnny Bedford edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:05

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 60

Sig Strikes

4 / 15

56%

Sig Str %

26%

45 / 72

Total Strikes

5 / 16

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:17

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marcos Vinicius	3 / 11	4 / 12	0 / 0	1
1	Johnny Bedford	24 / 42	35 / 54	1 / 1	0
2	Marcos Vinicius	1 / 4	1 / 4	0 / 0	0
2	Johnny Bedford	10 / 18	10 / 18	0 / 0	0

Johnny Bedford

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights5

Marcos Vinicius

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach—

Fights3