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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Khamzat Chimaev won · SUB R2
Elo1390
Elo1517
Khamzat Chimaev

John PhillipsvsKhamzat ChimaevUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige · Wednesday, July 15, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Khamzat Chimaev won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:12

Model Prediction: Khamzat Chimaev wins(56.2%)

Actual result: Khamzat Chimaev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Khamzat Chimaev at -375 American odds

+$27 profit

$127 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Khamzat Chimaev threatens submissions; John Phillips has lost 60% of fights by sub.
  • Khamzat Chimaev has 80pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors John Phillips (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

John Phillips
Red Corner
VS
Khamzat Chimaev
Blue Corner
+271
(27%)
Vegas Odds
-375
(79%)
1390
Elo
1517
41
Age
32
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'2"
190.5 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John Phillips
oldest →
L
SUBvs Charles Byrd · Mar 18
L
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Nov 18
L
vs Jack Marshman · Mar 19
W
KOvs Alen Amedovski · Sep 19
L
vs Junyong Park · Oct 20
latest
Khamzat Chimaev
oldest →
W
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Sep 22
W
vs Kamaru Usman · Oct 23
W
SUBvs Robert Whittaker · Oct 24
W
vs Dricus Du Plessis · Aug 25
L
DECvs Sean Strickland · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John PhillipsMetricKhamzat Chimaev
1.72
Strikes / min
4.01
4.03
Strikes absorbed / min
2.98
49%
Strike defense
52%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
5.32
7%
Takedown defense
87%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.31Δ 3.34 — meaningful gap+1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1466 vs 1500Strikes2.6 vs 0.0Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form-0.1 vs 0.0
John PhillipsKhamzat Chimaev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801498151515331550← oldermost recent →
John Phillips(6 fights)Khamzat Chimaev(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -126.8|Blue +126.8
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John PhillipsTargetKhamzat Chimaev

By target zone

1
50% acc · 100%
Head
40
82% acc · 93%
0
Body
1
100% acc · 2%
0
Leg
2
100% acc · 5%

By position

1
50% acc · 100%
Distance
1
100% acc · 2%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
42
82% acc · 98%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
John Phillips rounds
0
even
2
Khamzat Chimaev rounds
Round 1Khamzat Chimaev edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
40Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
4:55Control
Round 2Khamzat Chimaev edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:00
3Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:59Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
1 / 2
Sig Strikes
43 / 52
50%
Sig Str %
90.5%
2 / 3
Total Strikes
124 / 140
0 / 0
TDs
2 / 2
—
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
5:54

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Khamzat Chimaev40 / 49118 / 1331 / 10
1John Phillips1 / 22 / 30 / 00
2Khamzat Chimaev3 / 36 / 71 / 11
2John Phillips0 / 00 / 00 / 00

John Phillips

StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights6

Khamzat Chimaev

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights10