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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Charles Byrd won · SUB R1
Elo1390
Elo1385
Charles Byrd

John PhillipsvsCharles ByrdUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov · Saturday, March 17, 2018London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Charles Byrd won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:58

Model Prediction: John Phillips wins(50.5%)

Actual result: Charles Byrd wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Phillips at -115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Charles Byrd enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • John Phillips is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Charles Byrd has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Charles Byrd threatens submissions; John Phillips has lost 60% of fights by sub.
  • Charles Byrd has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors John Phillips (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

John Phillips
Red Corner
VS
Charles Byrd
Blue Corner
-115
(53%)
Vegas Odds
-105
(51%)
1390
Elo
1385
41
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'10"
190.5 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John PhillipsL2 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Nov 18
L
vs Jack Marshman · Mar 19
W
KOvs Alen Amedovski · Sep 19
L
SUBvs Khamzat Chimaev · Jul 20
L
vs Junyong Park · Oct 20
latest
Charles ByrdL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Darren Stewart · Sep 18
L
KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Mar 19
L
KOvs Maki Pitolo · Jun 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John PhillipsMetricCharles Byrd
1.72
Strikes / min
3.43
4.03
Strikes absorbed / min
2.63
49%
Strike defense
55%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
2.50
7%
Takedown defense
40%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.31Δ 3.11 — meaningful gap+0.80
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
John Phillips(6 fights)Charles Byrd(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +5.4|Blue -5.4
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John PhillipsTargetCharles Byrd

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
11
79% acc · 100%
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
0
0% acc
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
11
85% acc · 100%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
John Phillips rounds
0
even
1
Charles Byrd rounds
Round 1Charles Byrd edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:00
11Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:54Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
0 / 1
Sig Strikes
11 / 14
0%
Sig Str %
78%
1 / 2
Total Strikes
34 / 41
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 1
—
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
3:54

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Charles Byrd11 / 1434 / 411 / 11
1John Phillips0 / 11 / 20 / 00

John Phillips

StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights6

Charles Byrd

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights4