Flyweight

3 Rounds

John Moraga won · SUB R3

Elo1491

Elo1357

John MoragavsWillie GatesUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · Saturday, December 13, 2014Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

John Moraga won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:06

Model Prediction: John Moraga wins(69.3%)

Actual result: John Moraga wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Moraga at -570 American odds

+$18 profit

$118 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

John Moraga has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Willie Gates has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Willie Gates has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

John Moraga

Red Corner

Willie Gates

Blue Corner

-570

(85%)

Vegas Odds

+480

(17%)

1491

Elo

1357

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'8"

167.64 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John Moraga

oldest →

vs Sergio Pettis · Jan 17

vs Ashkan Mokhtarian · Jun 17

KOvs Magomed Bibulatov · Oct 17

vs Wilson Reis · Apr 18

KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 18

latest

Willie GatesL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Darrell Montague · Jul 15

KOvs Dustin Ortiz · Aug 15

SUBvs Ulka Sasaki · May 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John MoragaMetricWillie Gates

2.57

Strikes / min

1.80

2.55

Strikes absorbed / min

4.28

56%

Strike defense

38%

0.62

TDs / 15 min

0.00

44%

Takedown defense

67%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.02Δ 2.50 — meaningful gap-2.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

John MoragaWillie Gates

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

John Moraga(10 fights)Willie Gates(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +134.3|Blue -134.3

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -48.3|Blue +48.3

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John MoragaTargetWillie Gates

By target zone

51% acc · 50%

Head

17% acc · 41%

78% acc · 25%

Body

100% acc · 36%

64% acc · 25%

Leg

38% acc · 23%

By position

35% acc · 32%

Distance

22% acc · 64%

72% acc · 23%

Clinch

71% acc · 23%

96% acc · 45%

Ground

100% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

John Moraga rounds

even

Willie Gates rounds

Round 1Willie Gates edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:36

Knockdowns0

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:25Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2John Moraga edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control2:47

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3John Moraga edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns1

Control3:37

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

56 / 95

Sig Strikes

22 / 75

58.3%

Sig Str %

34%

95 / 137

Total Strikes

29 / 82

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

25%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:00

Ctrl Time

0:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Willie Gates	13 / 47	14 / 48	0 / 0	1
1	John Moraga	14 / 33	18 / 37	0 / 0	0
2	Willie Gates	5 / 20	10 / 25	0 / 0	0
2	John Moraga	13 / 30	29 / 48	0 / 2	0
3	Willie Gates	4 / 8	5 / 9	0 / 0	0
3	John Moraga	29 / 32	48 / 52	1 / 2	1

John Moraga

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights14

Willie Gates

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4