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Flyweight
3 Rounds
John Moraga won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1491
Elo1352
Ulysses Gomez

John MoragavsUlysses GomezUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera · Saturday, August 4, 2012Los Angeles, California, USA

Official fight result

John Moraga won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:46

Model Prediction: John Moraga wins(50.5%)

Actual result: John Moraga wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Moraga at +110 American odds

+$110 profit

$210 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Ulysses Gomez has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • John Moraga has 44pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

John Moraga
Red Corner
VS
Ulysses Gomez
Blue Corner
+110
(48%)
Vegas Odds
-120
(55%)
1491
Elo
1352
42
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'6"
167.64 cm
Reach
167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John Moraga
oldest →
L
vs Sergio Pettis · Jan 17
W
vs Ashkan Mokhtarian · Jun 17
W
KOvs Magomed Bibulatov · Oct 17
W
vs Wilson Reis · Apr 18
L
KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 18
latest
Ulysses Gomez
oldest →
L
vs Phil Harris · Feb 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John MoragaMetricUlysses Gomez
2.57
Strikes / min
2.72
2.55
Strikes absorbed / min
3.57
56%
Strike defense
68%
0.62
TDs / 15 min
0.00
44%
Takedown defense
0%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.02evenly matched on net striking-0.85
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
John Moraga(10 fights)Ulysses Gomez(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +139.2|Blue -139.2
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John MoragaTargetUlysses Gomez

By target zone

12
32% acc · 35%
Head
7
22% acc · 44%
13
81% acc · 38%
Body
3
75% acc · 19%
9
90% acc · 26%
Leg
6
86% acc · 38%

By position

24
47% acc · 71%
Distance
13
33% acc · 81%
9
82% acc · 26%
Clinch
3
100% acc · 19%
1
100% acc · 3%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
John Moraga rounds
0
even
0
Ulysses Gomez rounds
Round 1John Moraga edged it
Sig. strikes34
Takedowns0
Control0:21
Knockdowns1
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:23Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
34 / 63
Sig Strikes
16 / 43
53%
Sig Str %
37%
36 / 66
Total Strikes
16 / 43
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 5
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:21
Ctrl Time
0:23

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ulysses Gomez16 / 4316 / 430 / 50
1John Moraga34 / 6336 / 660 / 00

John Moraga

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights14

Ulysses Gomez

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach—
Fights2