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Flyweight
3 Rounds
Sergio Pettis won · U-DEC R3
Elo1491
Elo1492
Sergio Pettis

John MoragavsSergio PettisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · Sunday, January 15, 2017Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Sergio Pettis won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Sergio Pettis wins(63.7%)

Actual result: Sergio Pettis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sergio Pettis at -160 American odds

+$63 profit

$163 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Sergio Pettis has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

John Moraga
Red Corner
VS
Sergio Pettis
Blue Corner
+140
(42%)
Vegas Odds
-160
(62%)
1491
Elo
1492
42
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'6"
167.64 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John Moraga
oldest →
L
DECvs Matheus Nicolau · Jul 16
W
vs Ashkan Mokhtarian · Jun 17
W
KOvs Magomed Bibulatov · Oct 17
W
vs Wilson Reis · Apr 18
L
KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 18
latest
Sergio Pettis
oldest →
L
vs Henry Cejudo · Dec 17
W
vs Joseph Benavidez · Jun 18
L
vs Jussier Formiga · Oct 18
L
vs Rob Font · Dec 18
W
vs Tyson Nam · Sep 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John MoragaMetricSergio Pettis
2.57
Strikes / min
3.88
2.55
Strikes absorbed / min
2.91
56%
Strike defense
65%
0.62
TDs / 15 min
0.85
44%
Takedown defense
67%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.02evenly matched on net striking+0.97

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1518 vs 1544Strikes30.7 vs 57.0Takedowns0.4 vs 1.3Sub Atts0.67 vs 0.71Form-0.6 vs 0.7
John MoragaSergio Pettis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
John Moraga(10 fights)Sergio Pettis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Recent Form
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Striker Score
Red -1.7|Blue +1.7
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red -76.0|Blue +76.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John MoragaTargetSergio Pettis

By target zone

26
24% acc · 79%
Head
45
30% acc · 94%
3
38% acc · 9%
Body
2
33% acc · 4%
4
80% acc · 12%
Leg
1
100% acc · 2%

By position

30
26% acc · 91%
Distance
47
30% acc · 98%
1
50% acc · 3%
Clinch
1
25% acc · 2%
2
100% acc · 6%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
John Moraga rounds
0
even
3
Sergio Pettis rounds
Round 1Sergio Pettis edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:22
19Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:25Control
Round 2Sergio Pettis edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control1:03
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Sergio Pettis edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns1
Control1:18
14Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:59Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
33 / 120
Sig Strikes
48 / 159
26.7%
Sig Str %
30.7%
42 / 131
Total Strikes
50 / 161
1 / 5
TDs
2 / 2
16.5%
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:43
Ctrl Time
1:24

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Sergio Pettis19 / 7019 / 701 / 10
1John Moraga16 / 4720 / 510 / 00
2Sergio Pettis15 / 5115 / 510 / 00
2John Moraga9 / 379 / 370 / 20
3Sergio Pettis14 / 3816 / 401 / 10
3John Moraga8 / 3613 / 431 / 30

John Moraga

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights14

Sergio Pettis

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights14