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Flyweight
3 Rounds
John Moraga won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1491
Elo1370
Magomed Bibulatov

John MoragavsMagomed BibulatovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · Saturday, October 7, 2017Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

John Moraga won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:38

Model Prediction: Magomed Bibulatov wins(65.5%)

Actual result: John Moraga wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Magomed Bibulatov at -550 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Magomed Bibulatov has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

John Moraga
Red Corner
VS
Magomed Bibulatov
Blue Corner
+425
(19%)
Vegas Odds
-550
(85%)
1491
Elo
1370
42
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'5"
167.64 cm
Reach
165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John Moraga
oldest →
L
DECvs Matheus Nicolau · Jul 16
L
vs Sergio Pettis · Jan 17
W
vs Ashkan Mokhtarian · Jun 17
W
vs Wilson Reis · Apr 18
L
KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 18
latest
Magomed Bibulatov
oldest →
W
vs Jenel Lausa · Apr 17
L
vs Rogerio Bontorin · Feb 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John MoragaMetricMagomed Bibulatov
2.57
Strikes / min
3.60
2.55
Strikes absorbed / min
1.83
56%
Strike defense
52%
0.62
TDs / 15 min
2.85
44%
Takedown defense
75%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.02Δ 1.75 — meaningful gap+1.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1519 vs 1517Strikes33.2 vs 51.0Takedowns0.6 vs 2.0Sub Atts0.91 vs 0.00Form-0.0 vs 1.0
John MoragaMagomed Bibulatov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
John Moraga(10 fights)Magomed Bibulatov(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +120.7|Blue -120.7
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red +1.8|Blue -1.8
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -63.0|Blue +63.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John MoragaTargetMagomed Bibulatov

By target zone

3
38% acc · 38%
Head
2
33% acc · 40%
1
50% acc · 13%
Body
2
67% acc · 40%
4
100% acc · 50%
Leg
1
100% acc · 20%

By position

7
54% acc · 88%
Distance
4
44% acc · 80%
0
Clinch
0
1
100% acc · 13%
Ground
1
100% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
John Moraga rounds
0
even
0
Magomed Bibulatov rounds
Round 1John Moraga edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns1
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
8 / 14
Sig Strikes
5 / 10
57%
Sig Str %
50%
8 / 14
Total Strikes
5 / 10
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:02
Ctrl Time
0:03

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Magomed Bibulatov5 / 105 / 100 / 00
1John Moraga8 / 148 / 140 / 10

John Moraga

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights14

Magomed Bibulatov

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights3