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Flyweight

3 Rounds

John Moraga won · SUB R2

Elo1491

Elo1366

John MoragavsJustin ScogginsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mousasi · Friday, September 5, 2014Ledyard, Connecticut, USA

Official fight result

John Moraga won

SUB · Round 2 · 0:47

Model Prediction: Justin Scoggins wins(78.8%)

Actual result: John Moraga wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Justin Scoggins at -250 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Justin Scoggins enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Justin Scoggins has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Justin Scoggins (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

John Moraga

Red Corner

Justin Scoggins

Blue Corner

+230

(30%)

Vegas Odds

-250

(71%)

1491

Elo

1366

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'7"

167.64 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John Moraga

oldest →

vs Sergio Pettis · Jan 17

vs Ashkan Mokhtarian · Jun 17

KOvs Magomed Bibulatov · Oct 17

vs Wilson Reis · Apr 18

KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 18

latest

Justin ScogginsL3 streak

oldest →

DECvs Joshua Sampo · May 15

vs Ray Borg · Feb 16

SUBvs Pedro Munhoz · Nov 16

SUBvs Ulka Sasaki · Jun 17

vs Said Nurmagomedov · Jul 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John MoragaMetricJustin Scoggins

2.57

Strikes / min

3.56

2.55

Strikes absorbed / min

2.16

56%

Strike defense

55%

0.62

TDs / 15 min

3.42

44%

Takedown defense

82%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.02Δ 1.38 — meaningful gap+1.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

John MoragaJustin Scoggins

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

John Moraga(10 fights)Justin Scoggins(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +124.8|Blue -124.8

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +29.0|Blue -29.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John MoragaTargetJustin Scoggins

By target zone

33% acc · 50%

Head

55% acc · 46%

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 23%

50% acc · 50%

Leg

100% acc · 31%

By position

33% acc · 100%

Distance

69% acc · 85%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

John Moraga rounds

even

Justin Scoggins rounds

Round 1Justin Scoggins edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:11Control

Round 2Justin Scoggins edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:20Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 12

Sig Strikes

13 / 18

34%

Sig Str %

82%

13 / 22

Total Strikes

34 / 41

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 3

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

4:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Justin Scoggins	9 / 14	30 / 37	2 / 2	0
1	John Moraga	2 / 7	11 / 17	0 / 0	2
2	Justin Scoggins	4 / 4	4 / 4	1 / 1	0
2	John Moraga	2 / 5	2 / 5	0 / 0	1

John Moraga

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights14

Justin Scoggins

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights9