Flyweight

3 Rounds

John Moraga won · S-DEC R3

Elo1491

John MoragavsDustin OrtizUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Philippou · Wednesday, January 15, 2014Duluth, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

John Moraga won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Dustin Ortiz wins(76.6%)

Actual result: John Moraga wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dustin Ortiz at +190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

John Moraga

Red Corner

Dustin Ortiz

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1491

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'5"

167.64 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John Moraga

oldest →

vs Sergio Pettis · Jan 17

vs Ashkan Mokhtarian · Jun 17

KOvs Magomed Bibulatov · Oct 17

vs Wilson Reis · Apr 18

KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 18

latest

Dustin Ortiz

oldest →

SUBvs Brandon Moreno · Apr 17

KOvs Hector Sandoval · Aug 17

vs Alexandre Pantoja · Jan 18

KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Jul 18

vs Joseph Benavidez · Jan 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John MoragaMetricDustin Ortiz

2.57

Strikes / min

2.94

2.55

Strikes absorbed / min

2.17

56%

Strike defense

56%

0.62

TDs / 15 min

3.01

44%

Takedown defense

52%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.02evenly matched on net striking+0.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

John MoragaDustin Ortiz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

John Moraga(10 fights)Dustin Ortiz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +105.0|Blue -105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John MoragaTargetDustin Ortiz

By target zone

38% acc · 58%

Head

34% acc · 63%

47% acc · 19%

Body

50% acc · 11%

83% acc · 23%

Leg

82% acc · 26%

By position

30% acc · 44%

Distance

24% acc · 34%

59% acc · 23%

Clinch

67% acc · 34%

100% acc · 33%

Ground

69% acc · 31%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

John Moraga rounds

even

Dustin Ortiz rounds

Round 1Dustin Ortiz edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:22Control

Round 2John Moraga edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control1:32

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:02Control

Round 3Dustin Ortiz edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:15

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:44Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 95

Sig Strikes

35 / 83

37.7%

Sig Str %

40.7%

75 / 130

Total Strikes

60 / 113

0 / 2

TDs

2 / 10

TD %

19.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:47

Ctrl Time

7:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dustin Ortiz	14 / 21	27 / 36	1 / 4	0
1	John Moraga	2 / 8	21 / 29	0 / 1	0
2	Dustin Ortiz	3 / 19	3 / 20	0 / 3	0
2	John Moraga	30 / 53	36 / 60	0 / 0	1
3	Dustin Ortiz	18 / 43	30 / 57	1 / 3	0
3	John Moraga	11 / 34	18 / 41	0 / 1	0

John Moraga

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights14

Dustin Ortiz

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights14