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Flyweight
3 Rounds
John Moraga won · U-DEC R3
Elo1491
Elo1363

John MoragavsAshkan MokhtarianUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt · Saturday, June 10, 2017Auckland, New Zealand

Official fight result

John Moraga won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: John Moraga wins(61.1%)

Actual result: John Moraga wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Moraga at -210 American odds

+$48 profit

$148 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • John Moraga has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Ashkan Mokhtarian (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

John Moraga
Red Corner
VS
Ashkan Mokhtarian
Blue Corner
-210
(68%)
Vegas Odds
+175
(36%)
1491
Elo
1363
42
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'6"
Height
5'6"
167.64 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John Moraga
oldest →
L
DECvs Matheus Nicolau · Jul 16
L
vs Sergio Pettis · Jan 17
W
KOvs Magomed Bibulatov · Oct 17
W
vs Wilson Reis · Apr 18
L
KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 18
latest
Ashkan Mokhtarian
oldest →
L
KOvs Ryan Benoit · Nov 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John MoragaMetricAshkan Mokhtarian
2.57
Strikes / min
1.95
2.55
Strikes absorbed / min
3.66
56%
Strike defense
43%
0.62
TDs / 15 min
0.54
44%
Takedown defense
33%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.02Δ 1.73 — meaningful gap-1.71

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1503 vs 1500Strikes30.9 vs —Takedowns0.5 vs —Sub Atts0.60 vs —Form-0.8 vs 0.0
John MoragaAshkan Mokhtarian

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
John Moraga(10 fights)Ashkan Mokhtarian(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +128.5|Blue -128.5
Recent Form
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score
Red -48.2|Blue +48.2
Grappler Score
Red -49.8|Blue +49.8
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John MoragaTargetAshkan Mokhtarian

By target zone

46
63% acc · 82%
Head
2
18% acc · 17%
7
64% acc · 13%
Body
2
100% acc · 17%
3
100% acc · 5%
Leg
8
80% acc · 67%

By position

15
44% acc · 27%
Distance
10
48% acc · 83%
5
56% acc · 9%
Clinch
0
36
82% acc · 64%
Ground
2
100% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
John Moraga rounds
0
even
0
Ashkan Mokhtarian rounds
Round 1John Moraga edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control1:43
0Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:49Control
Round 2John Moraga edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns1
Control1:50
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3John Moraga edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns1
Control4:13
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:19Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
56 / 87
Sig Strikes
12 / 23
63.7%
Sig Str %
45%
73 / 107
Total Strikes
15 / 29
2 / 2
TDs
1 / 3
100%
TD %
25%
4
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
7:46
Ctrl Time
2:08

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ashkan Mokhtarian0 / 40 / 41 / 20
1John Moraga17 / 2618 / 280 / 02
2Ashkan Mokhtarian9 / 1510 / 160 / 00
2John Moraga14 / 3017 / 341 / 10
3Ashkan Mokhtarian3 / 45 / 90 / 10
3John Moraga25 / 3138 / 451 / 12

John Moraga

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights14

Ashkan Mokhtarian

StanceSouthpaw
Height66.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights2