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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Yancy Medeiros won · S-DEC R3
Elo1476
John Makdessi
Elo1403
Yancy Medeiros

John MakdessivsYancy MedeirosUFC Prediction Result

UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor · Saturday, December 12, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Yancy Medeiros won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJohn Makdessi: Pressure fightervsYancy Medeiros: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: John Makdessi wins(52.6%)

Actual result: Yancy Medeiros wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Makdessi at -170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Yancy Medeiros enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • John Makdessi has 21pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Yancy Medeiros has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

John Makdessi
Red Corner
VS
Yancy Medeiros
Blue Corner
-170
(63%)
Vegas Odds
+150
(40%)
1476
Elo
1403
41
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'10"
172.72 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John MakdessiL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Jesus Pinedo · Mar 19
L
vs Francisco Trinaldo · Mar 20
W
vs Ignacio Bahamondes · Apr 21
L
vs Nasrat Haqparast · Sep 22
L
vs Jamie Mullarkey · Sep 23
latest
Yancy MedeirosL4 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Alex Oliveira · Dec 17
L
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Feb 18
L
KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Jan 19
L
vs Lando Vannata · Feb 20
L
vs Damir Hadzovic · Jun 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John MakdessiMetricYancy Medeiros
5.52
Strikes / min
4.36
4.15
Strikes absorbed / min
5.67
68%
Strike defense
47%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.33
86%
Takedown defense
73%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.37Δ 2.68 — meaningful gap-1.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1534 vs 1496Strikes53.3 vs 16.3Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.50Form0.0 vs -0.1
John MakdessiYancy Medeiros

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
John Makdessi(10 fights)Yancy Medeiros(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +73.0|Blue -73.0
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red +2.1|Blue -2.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +14.0|Blue -14.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John MakdessiTargetYancy Medeiros

By target zone

38
38% acc · 33%
Head
50
22% acc · 63%
48
74% acc · 42%
Body
14
64% acc · 18%
28
88% acc · 25%
Leg
16
84% acc · 20%

By position

113
58% acc · 99%
Distance
78
29% acc · 98%
1
50% acc · 1%
Clinch
2
100% acc · 3%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
John Makdessi rounds
1
even
0
Yancy Medeiros rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control0:00
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2John Makdessi edged it
Sig. strikes41
Takedowns0
Control0:00
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:14Control
Round 3John Makdessi edged it
Sig. strikes49
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
30Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
114 / 196
Sig Strikes
80 / 268
58%
Sig Str %
30%
114 / 196
Total Strikes
80 / 268
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 1
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:14

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Yancy Medeiros25 / 7125 / 710 / 00
1John Makdessi24 / 4424 / 440 / 00
2Yancy Medeiros25 / 8725 / 870 / 10
2John Makdessi41 / 6341 / 630 / 00
3Yancy Medeiros30 / 11030 / 1100 / 00
3John Makdessi49 / 8949 / 890 / 00

John Makdessi

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights20

Yancy Medeiros

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights14