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Lightweight
3 Rounds
John Makdessi won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1476
John Makdessi
Elo1353

John MakdessivsRenee ForteUFC Prediction Result

UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson · Saturday, September 21, 2013Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

John Makdessi won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:01

Style matchupJohn Makdessi: Pressure fightervsRenee Forte: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: John Makdessi wins(69.7%)

Actual result: John Makdessi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Makdessi at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • John Makdessi has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

John Makdessi
Red Corner
VS
Renee Forte
Blue Corner
-150
(60%)
Vegas Odds
+140
(42%)
1476
Elo
1353
41
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'7"
172.72 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John MakdessiL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Jesus Pinedo · Mar 19
L
vs Francisco Trinaldo · Mar 20
W
vs Ignacio Bahamondes · Apr 21
L
vs Nasrat Haqparast · Sep 22
L
vs Jamie Mullarkey · Sep 23
latest
Renee Forte
oldest →
L
SUBvs Sergio Moraes · Oct 12
W
vs Terry Etim · Feb 13
L
vs Francisco Trevino · Mar 14
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John MakdessiMetricRenee Forte
5.52
Strikes / min
2.08
4.15
Strikes absorbed / min
2.12
68%
Strike defense
63%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
2.32
86%
Takedown defense
66%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.37Δ 1.41 — meaningful gap-0.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1536 vs 1499Strikes55.5 vs 36.5Takedowns0.0 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form0.5 vs 0.2
John MakdessiRenee Forte

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
John Makdessi(10 fights)Renee Forte(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +122.9|Blue -122.9
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red +1.9|Blue -1.9
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -28.0|Blue +28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John MakdessiTargetRenee Forte

By target zone

11
42% acc · 55%
Head
3
14% acc · 43%
5
71% acc · 25%
Body
2
50% acc · 29%
4
67% acc · 20%
Leg
2
100% acc · 29%

By position

11
48% acc · 55%
Distance
7
26% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
9
56% acc · 45%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
John Makdessi rounds
0
even
0
Renee Forte rounds
Round 1John Makdessi edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:08
Knockdowns1
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
20 / 39
Sig Strikes
7 / 27
51%
Sig Str %
25%
20 / 39
Total Strikes
7 / 27
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:08
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Renee Forte7 / 277 / 270 / 00
1John Makdessi20 / 3920 / 390 / 00

John Makdessi

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights20

Renee Forte

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights4