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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Nasrat Haqparast won · U-DEC R3

Elo1476

Elo1510

John MakdessivsNasrat HaqparastUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa · Saturday, September 3, 2022Paris, Ile-de-France, France

Official fight result

Nasrat Haqparast won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJohn Makdessi: Pressure fightervsNasrat Haqparast: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Nasrat Haqparast wins(61.1%)

Actual result: Nasrat Haqparast wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nasrat Haqparast at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Nasrat Haqparast (53.5%).
Nasrat Haqparast has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

John Makdessi

Red Corner

Nasrat Haqparast

Blue Corner

+195

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-230

(70%)

1476

Elo

1510

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'10"

172.72 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John Makdessi

oldest →

vs Ross Pearson · Jul 18

vs Jesus Pinedo · Mar 19

vs Francisco Trinaldo · Mar 20

vs Ignacio Bahamondes · Apr 21

vs Jamie Mullarkey · Sep 23

latest

Nasrat Haqparast

oldest →

vs Landon Quinones · Sep 23

KOvs Jamie Mullarkey · Dec 23

vs Jared Gordon · Jun 24

vs Esteban Ribovics · Mar 25

KOvs Quillan Salkilld · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John MakdessiMetricNasrat Haqparast

5.52

Strikes / min

6.36

4.15

Strikes absorbed / min

6.00

68%

Strike defense

63%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.34

86%

Takedown defense

86%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.37Δ 1.01 — meaningful gap+0.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

John MakdessiNasrat Haqparast

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

John Makdessi(10 fights)Nasrat Haqparast(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -34.1|Blue +34.1

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +308.0|Blue -308.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John MakdessiTargetNasrat Haqparast

By target zone

21% acc · 36%

Head

29% acc · 64%

44% acc · 25%

Body

66% acc · 30%

88% acc · 40%

Leg

80% acc · 6%

By position

37% acc · 99%

Distance

36% acc · 94%

100% acc · 1%

Clinch

80% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

John Makdessi rounds

even

Nasrat Haqparast rounds

Round 1John Makdessi edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Nasrat Haqparast edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Nasrat Haqparast edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:29Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

73 / 196

Sig Strikes

64 / 173

38%

Sig Str %

36%

73 / 196

Total Strikes

72 / 181

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 3

—

TD %

66%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nasrat Haqparast	12 / 43	12 / 43	0 / 0
1	John Makdessi	22 / 48	22 / 48	0 / 0
2	Nasrat Haqparast	28 / 78	28 / 78	0 / 0
2	John Makdessi	23 / 62	23 / 62	0 / 0
3	Nasrat Haqparast	24 / 52	32 / 60	2 / 3
3	John Makdessi	28 / 86	28 / 86	0 / 0

John Makdessi

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights20

Nasrat Haqparast

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights15