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Lightweight

3 Rounds

John Makdessi won · S-DEC R3

Elo1476

Elo1357

John MakdessivsMehdi BaghdadUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · Thursday, July 7, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

John Makdessi won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJohn Makdessi: Pressure fightervsMehdi Baghdad: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: John Makdessi wins(53.5%)

Actual result: John Makdessi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Makdessi at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

John Makdessi has 22pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
John Makdessi has 53pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Mehdi Baghdad has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

John Makdessi

Red Corner

Mehdi Baghdad

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1476

Elo

1357

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

6'1"

172.72 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John MakdessiL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jesus Pinedo · Mar 19

vs Francisco Trinaldo · Mar 20

vs Ignacio Bahamondes · Apr 21

vs Nasrat Haqparast · Sep 22

vs Jamie Mullarkey · Sep 23

latest

Mehdi Baghdad

oldest →

SUBvs Chris Wade · Jan 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John MakdessiMetricMehdi Baghdad

5.52

Strikes / min

3.13

4.15

Strikes absorbed / min

4.56

68%

Strike defense

46%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.00

86%

Takedown defense

33%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.37Δ 2.80 — meaningful gap-1.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

John MakdessiMehdi Baghdad

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

John Makdessi(10 fights)Mehdi Baghdad(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +118.5|Blue -118.5

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +3.1|Blue -3.1

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +36.0|Blue -36.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John MakdessiTargetMehdi Baghdad

By target zone

36% acc · 37%

Head

21% acc · 53%

73% acc · 32%

Body

42% acc · 13%

87% acc · 31%

Leg

87% acc · 33%

By position

58% acc · 94%

Distance

30% acc · 90%

30% acc · 4%

Clinch

38% acc · 5%

33% acc · 2%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

John Makdessi rounds

even

Mehdi Baghdad rounds

Round 1John Makdessi edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2John Makdessi edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3John Makdessi edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control1:46

Knockdowns0

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

84 / 152

Sig Strikes

60 / 193

55%

Sig Str %

31%

110 / 182

Total Strikes

64 / 197

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:46

Ctrl Time

0:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mehdi Baghdad	16 / 55	16 / 55	0 / 0
1	John Makdessi	20 / 36	20 / 36	0 / 0
2	Mehdi Baghdad	19 / 74	19 / 74	0 / 0
2	John Makdessi	31 / 51	33 / 55	0 / 0
3	Mehdi Baghdad	25 / 64	29 / 68	0 / 1
3	John Makdessi	33 / 65	57 / 91	0 / 1

John Makdessi

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights20

Mehdi Baghdad

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach—

Fights2