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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Lando Vannata won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1476
John Makdessi
Elo1478
Lando Vannata

John MakdessivsLando VannataUFC Prediction Result

UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis · Saturday, December 10, 2016Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Lando Vannata won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:40

Style matchupJohn Makdessi: Pressure fightervsLando Vannata: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: John Makdessi wins(68.8%)

Actual result: Lando Vannata wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Makdessi at +135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Lando Vannata enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • John Makdessi has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • John Makdessi has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

John Makdessi
Red Corner
VS
Lando Vannata
Blue Corner
+135
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-155
(61%)
1476
Elo
1478
41
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'9"
172.72 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John MakdessiL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Jesus Pinedo · Mar 19
L
vs Francisco Trinaldo · Mar 20
W
vs Ignacio Bahamondes · Apr 21
L
vs Nasrat Haqparast · Sep 22
L
vs Jamie Mullarkey · Sep 23
latest
Lando VannataL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Bobby Green · Aug 20
W
vs Mike Grundy · May 21
L
SUBvs Charles Jourdain · Apr 22
L
vs Daniel Zellhuber · Apr 23
L
KOvs Darrius Flowers · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John MakdessiMetricLando Vannata
5.52
Strikes / min
4.52
4.15
Strikes absorbed / min
4.71
68%
Strike defense
54%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
1.24
86%
Takedown defense
66%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.37Δ 1.56 — meaningful gap-0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1531 vs 1489Strikes60.9 vs 40.0Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form0.1 vs -0.9
John MakdessiLando Vannata

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601475149015051520← oldermost recent →
John Makdessi(10 fights)Lando Vannata(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -1.7|Blue +1.7
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red +3.1|Blue -3.1
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +6.0|Blue -6.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John MakdessiTargetLando Vannata

By target zone

2
67% acc · 18%
Head
3
21% acc · 30%
5
83% acc · 45%
Body
5
45% acc · 50%
4
100% acc · 36%
Leg
2
29% acc · 20%

By position

11
85% acc · 100%
Distance
10
31% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
John Makdessi rounds
0
even
1
Lando Vannata rounds
Round 1Lando Vannata edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
11 / 13
Sig Strikes
10 / 32
84%
Sig Str %
31%
11 / 13
Total Strikes
10 / 32
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:01

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Lando Vannata10 / 3210 / 320 / 00
1John Makdessi11 / 1311 / 130 / 00

John Makdessi

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights20

Lando Vannata

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights12