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Lightweight

3 Rounds

John Makdessi won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1476

Elo1490

John MakdessivsKyle WatsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields · Saturday, April 30, 2011Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

John Makdessi won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:27

Style matchupJohn Makdessi: Pressure fightervsKyle Watson: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: John Makdessi wins(60.5%)

Actual result: John Makdessi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Makdessi at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Tale of the Tape

John Makdessi

Red Corner

Kyle Watson

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1476

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

6'0"

172.72 cm

Reach

178 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John MakdessiL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jesus Pinedo · Mar 19

vs Francisco Trinaldo · Mar 20

vs Ignacio Bahamondes · Apr 21

vs Nasrat Haqparast · Sep 22

vs Jamie Mullarkey · Sep 23

latest

Kyle Watson

oldest →

vs Sako Chivitchian · Dec 10

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John MakdessiMetricKyle Watson

5.52

Strikes / min

3.67

4.15

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

68%

Strike defense

62%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.00

86%

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.37evenly matched on net striking+0.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

John MakdessiKyle Watson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

John Makdessi(10 fights)Kyle Watson(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -14.3|Blue +14.3

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John MakdessiTargetKyle Watson

By target zone

48% acc · 62%

Head

11% acc · 48%

50% acc · 18%

Body

35% acc · 24%

67% acc · 20%

Leg

58% acc · 28%

By position

49% acc · 86%

Distance

16% acc · 88%

64% acc · 14%

Clinch

43% acc · 12%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

John Makdessi rounds

even

Kyle Watson rounds

Round 1John Makdessi edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2John Makdessi edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 3John Makdessi edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

50 / 98

Sig Strikes

25 / 141

51.7%

Sig Str %

18.7%

55 / 103

Total Strikes

25 / 141

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 3

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

0:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kyle Watson	13 / 67	13 / 67	0 / 2
1	John Makdessi	16 / 34	19 / 37	0 / 0
2	Kyle Watson	10 / 65	10 / 65	0 / 1
2	John Makdessi	25 / 48	27 / 50	0 / 0
3	Kyle Watson	2 / 9	2 / 9	0 / 0
3	John Makdessi	9 / 16	9 / 16	0 / 0

John Makdessi

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights20

Kyle Watson

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach—

Fights2