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Lightweight

3 Rounds

John Makdessi won · U-DEC R3

Elo1476

Elo1491

John MakdessivsJesus PinedoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · Saturday, March 23, 2019Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

John Makdessi won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJohn Makdessi: Pressure fightervsJesus Pinedo: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: John Makdessi wins(54.3%)

Actual result: John Makdessi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Makdessi at -300 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

John Makdessi has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Jesus Pinedo (53.5%).
Jesus Pinedo has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

John Makdessi

Red Corner

Jesus Pinedo

Blue Corner

-300

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+250

(29%)

1476

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'10"

172.72 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John MakdessiL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ross Pearson · Jul 18

vs Francisco Trinaldo · Mar 20

vs Ignacio Bahamondes · Apr 21

vs Nasrat Haqparast · Sep 22

vs Jamie Mullarkey · Sep 23

latest

Jesus Pinedo

oldest →

vs Devin Powell · Nov 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John MakdessiMetricJesus Pinedo

5.52

Strikes / min

3.23

4.15

Strikes absorbed / min

4.37

68%

Strike defense

52%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

2.50

86%

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.37Δ 2.51 — meaningful gap-1.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

John MakdessiJesus Pinedo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

John Makdessi(10 fights)Jesus Pinedo(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -15.6|Blue +15.6

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +3.2|Blue -3.2

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +112.0|Blue -112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John MakdessiTargetJesus Pinedo

By target zone

42% acc · 34%

Head

24% acc · 49%

38% acc · 11%

Body

56% acc · 27%

71% acc · 55%

Leg

43% acc · 24%

By position

53% acc · 100%

Distance

33% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

John Makdessi rounds

even

Jesus Pinedo rounds

Round 1John Makdessi edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2John Makdessi edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:02

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3John Makdessi edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

73 / 137

Sig Strikes

37 / 113

52.7%

Sig Str %

32%

75 / 139

Total Strikes

37 / 114

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jesus Pinedo	7 / 25	7 / 25	0 / 0
1	John Makdessi	14 / 28	14 / 28	0 / 0
2	Jesus Pinedo	13 / 37	13 / 38	0 / 0
2	John Makdessi	28 / 50	30 / 52	0 / 0
3	Jesus Pinedo	17 / 51	17 / 51	0 / 0
3	John Makdessi	31 / 59	31 / 59	0 / 0

John Makdessi

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights20

Jesus Pinedo

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach—

Fights2