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Lightweight
3 Rounds
John Makdessi won · U-DEC R3
Elo1476
John Makdessi
Elo1356

John MakdessivsDaron CruickshankUFC Prediction Result

UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz · Saturday, March 16, 2013Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

John Makdessi won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJohn Makdessi: Pressure fightervsDaron Cruickshank: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Daron Cruickshank wins(61.8%)

Actual result: John Makdessi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daron Cruickshank at +120 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Daron Cruickshank enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • John Makdessi has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • John Makdessi has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Daron Cruickshank (52.9%).
  • Daron Cruickshank has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

John Makdessi
Red Corner
VS
Daron Cruickshank
Blue Corner
-130
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+120
(45%)
1476
Elo
1356
41
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'8"
Height
5'8"
172.72 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John MakdessiL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Jesus Pinedo · Mar 19
L
vs Francisco Trinaldo · Mar 20
W
vs Ignacio Bahamondes · Apr 21
L
vs Nasrat Haqparast · Sep 22
L
vs Jamie Mullarkey · Sep 23
latest
Daron CruickshankL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Jorge Masvidal · Jul 14
W
vs Anthony Njokuani · Oct 14
L
SUBvs Beneil Dariush · Mar 15
L
SUBvs James Krause · Jul 15
L
SUBvs Paul Felder · Jan 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John MakdessiMetricDaron Cruickshank
5.52
Strikes / min
2.88
4.15
Strikes absorbed / min
2.98
68%
Strike defense
57%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
2.04
86%
Takedown defense
60%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.37Δ 1.47 — meaningful gap-0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1516 vs 1536Strikes49.4 vs 34.5Takedowns0.0 vs 2.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form0.2 vs 1.0
John MakdessiDaron Cruickshank

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
John Makdessi(10 fights)Daron Cruickshank(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +119.8|Blue -119.8
Recent Form
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score
Red +2.1|Blue -2.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff
Red +21.0|Blue -21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John MakdessiTargetDaron Cruickshank

By target zone

58
38% acc · 67%
Head
32
19% acc · 63%
17
57% acc · 20%
Body
7
37% acc · 14%
11
92% acc · 13%
Leg
12
92% acc · 24%

By position

85
45% acc · 99%
Distance
50
25% acc · 98%
1
20% acc · 1%
Clinch
0
0
0% acc
Ground
1
100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
John Makdessi rounds
1
even
0
Daron Cruickshank rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Round 2John Makdessi edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns0
Control0:00
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3John Makdessi edged it
Sig. strikes47
Takedowns0
Control0:11
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
86 / 195
Sig Strikes
51 / 198
40.7%
Sig Str %
25%
88 / 197
Total Strikes
51 / 198
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 4
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:11
Ctrl Time
0:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Daron Cruickshank12 / 5412 / 540 / 10
1John Makdessi11 / 4111 / 410 / 00
2Daron Cruickshank23 / 7023 / 700 / 10
2John Makdessi28 / 6228 / 620 / 00
3Daron Cruickshank16 / 7416 / 740 / 20
3John Makdessi47 / 9249 / 940 / 00

John Makdessi

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights20

Daron Cruickshank

StanceSwitch
Height68.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights12