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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Alan Patrick won · U-DEC R3

Elo1476

Elo1425

John MakdessivsAlan PatrickUFC Prediction Result

UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · Saturday, February 1, 2014Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Alan Patrick won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJohn Makdessi: Pressure fightervsAlan Patrick: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: John Makdessi wins(55.7%)

Actual result: Alan Patrick wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Makdessi at -125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alan Patrick enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
John Makdessi has 25pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
John Makdessi has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Alan Patrick (53.5%).
Alan Patrick has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

John Makdessi

Red Corner

Alan Patrick

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1476

Elo

1425

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'11"

172.72 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John MakdessiL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jesus Pinedo · Mar 19

vs Francisco Trinaldo · Mar 20

vs Ignacio Bahamondes · Apr 21

vs Nasrat Haqparast · Sep 22

vs Jamie Mullarkey · Sep 23

latest

Alan PatrickL3 streak

oldest →

vs Stevie Ray · Sep 16

vs Damir Hadzovic · Feb 18

KOvs Scott Holtzman · Oct 18

vs Bobby Green · Sep 20

KOvs Michael Johnson · May 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John MakdessiMetricAlan Patrick

5.52

Strikes / min

1.82

4.15

Strikes absorbed / min

2.95

68%

Strike defense

43%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

3.01

86%

Takedown defense

43%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.37Δ 2.50 — meaningful gap-1.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

John MakdessiAlan Patrick

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

John Makdessi(10 fights)Alan Patrick(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +51.1|Blue -51.1

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +2.9|Blue -2.9

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +18.0|Blue -18.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John MakdessiTargetAlan Patrick

By target zone

39% acc · 49%

Head

22% acc · 57%

47% acc · 30%

Body

45% acc · 25%

93% acc · 21%

Leg

78% acc · 18%

By position

47% acc · 84%

Distance

26% acc · 80%

48% acc · 16%

Clinch

62% acc · 20%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

John Makdessi rounds

even

Alan Patrick rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:50Control

Round 2John Makdessi edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 3John Makdessi edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:01

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:34Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

61 / 129

Sig Strikes

40 / 134

46.7%

Sig Str %

29%

66 / 134

Total Strikes

42 / 136

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 11

—

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

1:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alan Patrick	13 / 44	15 / 46	1 / 4
1	John Makdessi	16 / 38	18 / 40	0 / 0
2	Alan Patrick	9 / 42	9 / 42	1 / 4
2	John Makdessi	20 / 42	21 / 43	0 / 0
3	Alan Patrick	18 / 48	18 / 48	0 / 3
3	John Makdessi	25 / 49	27 / 51	0 / 0

John Makdessi

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights20

Alan Patrick

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9