Welterweight

3 Rounds

John Maguire won · U-DEC R3

Elo1352

Elo1355

John MaguirevsJustin EdwardsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz · Saturday, November 5, 2011Birmingham, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

John Maguire won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJohn Maguire: WrestlervsJustin Edwards: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Justin Edwards wins(82.9%)

Actual result: John Maguire wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Justin Edwards at -130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

John Maguire enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Justin Edwards enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
John Maguire has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
John Maguire has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors John Maguire (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

John Maguire

Red Corner

Justin Edwards

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1352

Elo

1355

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

175.26 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John MaguireL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs DaMarques Johnson · Apr 12

vs John Hathaway · Sep 12

vs Matthew Riddle · Nov 12

vs Mitch Clarke · Jun 13

latest

Justin EdwardsL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jorge Lopez · Sep 11

SUBvs Josh Neer · Oct 12

KOvs Brandon Thatch · Aug 13

vs Ramsey Nijem · Jan 14

SUBvs Joe Proctor · Jun 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John MaguireMetricJustin Edwards

1.41

Strikes / min

2.68

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

3.32

65%

Strike defense

51%

2.80

TDs / 15 min

2.14

77%

Takedown defense

27%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.03evenly matched on net striking-0.64

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

John MaguireJustin Edwards

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

John Maguire(5 fights)Justin Edwards(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.6|Blue +2.6

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +48.6|Blue -48.6

Grappler Score

Red +49.5|Blue -49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John MaguireTargetJustin Edwards

By target zone

64% acc · 67%

Head

33% acc · 46%

86% acc · 22%

Body

60% acc · 43%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

75% acc · 11%

By position

53% acc · 33%

Distance

38% acc · 39%

90% acc · 33%

Clinch

57% acc · 43%

82% acc · 33%

Ground

36% acc · 18%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

John Maguire rounds

even

Justin Edwards rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns4

Control3:29

Knockdowns0

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:37Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2John Maguire edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control2:43

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:36Control

Round 3John Maguire edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control3:05

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:41Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 38

Sig Strikes

28 / 64

70.3%

Sig Str %

40.7%

70 / 88

Total Strikes

45 / 87

6 / 9

TDs

0 / 2

60%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

9:17

Ctrl Time

1:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Justin Edwards	17 / 34	23 / 40	0 / 1	1
1	John Maguire	9 / 14	18 / 26	4 / 5	0
2	Justin Edwards	7 / 19	16 / 33	0 / 1	0
2	John Maguire	7 / 11	22 / 29	1 / 2	1
3	Justin Edwards	4 / 11	6 / 14	0 / 0	0
3	John Maguire	11 / 13	30 / 33	1 / 2	1

John Maguire

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights5

Justin Edwards

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7