Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Bantamweight
3 Rounds
John Lineker won · U-DEC R3
Elo1492
John Lineker
Elo1475
Marlon Vera

John LinekervsMarlon VeraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · Saturday, October 28, 2017Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

John Lineker won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJohn Lineker: Pressure fightervsMarlon Vera: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: John Lineker wins(55.8%)

Actual result: John Lineker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Lineker at -485 American odds

+$21 profit

$121 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Marlon Vera enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Marlon Vera (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

John Lineker
Red Corner
VS
Marlon Vera
Blue Corner
-485
(83%)
Vegas Odds
+385
(21%)
1492
Elo
1475
36
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'3"
Height
5'8"
170.18 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John Lineker
oldest →
W
KOvs Michael McDonald · Jul 16
W
vs John Dodson · Oct 16
L
vs TJ Dillashaw · Dec 16
W
KOvs Brian Kelleher · May 18
L
vs Cory Sandhagen · Apr 19
latest
Marlon VeraL4 streak
oldest →
W
vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 23
L
vs Sean O'Malley · Mar 24
L
vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 24
L
vs Aiemann Zahabi · Oct 25
L
vs David Martinez · Feb 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John LinekerMetricMarlon Vera
5.36
Strikes / min
4.18
4.27
Strikes absorbed / min
5.34
56%
Strike defense
50%
0.56
TDs / 15 min
0.47
67%
Takedown defense
71%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.09Δ 2.25 — meaningful gap-1.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1598 vs 1531Strikes55.8 vs 30.2Takedowns0.5 vs 0.5Sub Atts0.46 vs 1.33Form0.4 vs 0.8
John LinekerMarlon Vera

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601475149015051520← oldermost recent →
John Lineker(10 fights)Marlon Vera(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +17.0|Blue -17.0
Recent Form
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score
Red +2.1|Blue -2.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red +204.0|Blue -204.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John LinekerTargetMarlon Vera

By target zone

33
34% acc · 43%
Head
21
31% acc · 43%
33
57% acc · 43%
Body
10
42% acc · 20%
11
65% acc · 14%
Leg
18
72% acc · 37%

By position

58
40% acc · 75%
Distance
43
40% acc · 88%
7
58% acc · 9%
Clinch
6
67% acc · 12%
12
80% acc · 16%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
John Lineker rounds
0
even
0
Marlon Vera rounds
Round 1John Lineker edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:00
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2John Lineker edged it
Sig. strikes36
Takedowns0
Control0:55
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3John Lineker edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:40
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
77 / 171
Sig Strikes
49 / 117
45%
Sig Str %
42.3%
93 / 188
Total Strikes
50 / 118
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:35
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Marlon Vera11 / 2611 / 260 / 00
1John Lineker23 / 4423 / 440 / 00
2Marlon Vera21 / 4021 / 400 / 00
2John Lineker36 / 6750 / 820 / 00
3Marlon Vera17 / 5118 / 520 / 00
3John Lineker18 / 6020 / 620 / 00

John Lineker

StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights16

Marlon Vera

StanceSwitch
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights26