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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

John Lineker won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1492

Elo1489

John LinekervsBrian KelleherUFC Prediction Result

UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · Saturday, May 12, 2018Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

John Lineker won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 3:43

Style matchupJohn Lineker: Pressure fightervsBrian Kelleher: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: John Lineker wins(50.2%)

Actual result: John Lineker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Lineker at -265 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brian Kelleher enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Brian Kelleher (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

John Lineker

Red Corner

Brian Kelleher

Blue Corner

-265

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+225

(31%)

1492

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'3"

Height

5'6"

170.18 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John Lineker

oldest →

KOvs Michael McDonald · Jul 16

vs John Dodson · Oct 16

vs TJ Dillashaw · Dec 16

vs Marlon Vera · Oct 17

vs Cory Sandhagen · Apr 19

latest

Brian KelleherL4 streak

oldest →

vs Kevin Croom · Jan 22

SUBvs Umar Nurmagomedov · Mar 22

SUBvs Mario Bautista · Jun 22

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Dec 23

SUBvs Cody Gibson · Jul 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John LinekerMetricBrian Kelleher

5.36

Strikes / min

3.31

4.27

Strikes absorbed / min

4.59

56%

Strike defense

54%

0.56

TDs / 15 min

1.68

67%

Takedown defense

60%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.09Δ 2.37 — meaningful gap-1.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

John LinekerBrian Kelleher

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

John Lineker(10 fights)Brian Kelleher(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.7|Blue -2.7

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +2.9|Blue -2.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +119.0|Blue -119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John LinekerTargetBrian Kelleher

By target zone

38% acc · 64%

Head

37% acc · 82%

63% acc · 30%

Body

32% acc · 12%

55% acc · 6%

Leg

50% acc · 6%

By position

42% acc · 87%

Distance

35% acc · 92%

58% acc · 7%

Clinch

75% acc · 6%

60% acc · 6%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

John Lineker rounds

even

Brian Kelleher rounds

Round 1John Lineker edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control1:02

Knockdowns1

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2John Lineker edged it

Sig. strikes49

Takedowns0

Control0:03

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3John Lineker edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:43Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

102 / 233

Sig Strikes

50 / 137

42.7%

Sig Str %

35.3%

113 / 244

Total Strikes

58 / 147

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 6

—

TD %

11%

Sub Att

Rev

1:07

Ctrl Time

0:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brian Kelleher	11 / 33	15 / 37	0 / 2	0
1	John Lineker	32 / 72	40 / 80	0 / 0	0
2	Brian Kelleher	24 / 55	24 / 55	0 / 1	0
2	John Lineker	49 / 108	52 / 111	0 / 0	0
3	Brian Kelleher	15 / 49	19 / 55	1 / 3	0
3	John Lineker	21 / 53	21 / 53	0 / 0	1

John Lineker

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights16

Brian Kelleher

StanceSwitch

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights17