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Flyweight
3 Rounds
John Lineker won · KO/TKO R3
Elo1492
John Lineker
Elo1355
Alptekin Ozkilic

John LinekervsAlptekin OzkilicUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Miller · Wednesday, July 16, 2014Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

John Lineker won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:51

Style matchupJohn Lineker: Pressure fightervsAlptekin Ozkilic: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: John Lineker wins(51.6%)

Actual result: John Lineker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Lineker at -345 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • John Lineker is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Alptekin Ozkilic has lost 67% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

John Lineker
Red Corner
VS
Alptekin Ozkilic
Blue Corner
-345
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+315
(24%)
1492
Elo
1355
36
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'3"
Height
5'5"
170.18 cm
Reach
165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John Lineker
oldest →
W
vs John Dodson · Oct 16
L
vs TJ Dillashaw · Dec 16
W
vs Marlon Vera · Oct 17
W
KOvs Brian Kelleher · May 18
L
vs Cory Sandhagen · Apr 19
latest
Alptekin OzkilicL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Darren Uyenoyama · Dec 13
L
vs Louis Smolka · Jan 14
L
KOvs Ben Nguyen · May 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John LinekerMetricAlptekin Ozkilic
5.36
Strikes / min
3.81
4.27
Strikes absorbed / min
5.72
56%
Strike defense
59%
0.56
TDs / 15 min
4.21
67%
Takedown defense
75%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.09Δ 3.00 — meaningful gap-1.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1528 vs 1500Strikes48.2 vs 43.5Takedowns0.3 vs 6.0Sub Atts0.33 vs 0.00Form0.4 vs -0.0
John LinekerAlptekin Ozkilic

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
John Lineker(10 fights)Alptekin Ozkilic(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +136.9|Blue -136.9
Recent Form
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score
Red +2.9|Blue -2.9
Grappler Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff
Red -17.0|Blue +17.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John LinekerTargetAlptekin Ozkilic

By target zone

84
34% acc · 63%
Head
73
36% acc · 83%
42
60% acc · 32%
Body
8
38% acc · 9%
7
100% acc · 5%
Leg
7
100% acc · 8%

By position

125
40% acc · 94%
Distance
84
39% acc · 95%
6
40% acc · 5%
Clinch
4
31% acc · 5%
2
67% acc · 2%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
John Lineker rounds
0
even
0
Alptekin Ozkilic rounds
Round 1John Lineker edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns1
Control0:15
19Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:53Control
Round 2John Lineker edged it
Sig. strikes39
Takedowns1
Control0:00
32Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Round 3John Lineker edged it
Sig. strikes70
Takedowns0
Control0:01
Knockdowns1
37Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
133 / 327
Sig Strikes
88 / 230
39.7%
Sig Str %
38.7%
134 / 328
Total Strikes
94 / 237
2 / 4
TDs
1 / 4
50%
TD %
25%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:16
Ctrl Time
0:54

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Alptekin Ozkilic19 / 4525 / 521 / 20
1John Lineker24 / 6125 / 621 / 20
2Alptekin Ozkilic32 / 8832 / 880 / 00
2John Lineker39 / 10739 / 1071 / 20
3Alptekin Ozkilic37 / 9737 / 970 / 20
3John Lineker70 / 15970 / 1590 / 00

John Lineker

StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights16

Alptekin Ozkilic

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights4