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Flyweight
3 Rounds
Ali Bagautinov won · U-DEC R3
Elo1492
John Lineker
Elo1491
Ali Bagautinov

John LinekervsAli BagautinovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · Saturday, February 1, 2014Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Ali Bagautinov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJohn Lineker: Pressure fightervsAli Bagautinov: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: John Lineker wins(51.2%)

Actual result: Ali Bagautinov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Lineker at +135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

John Lineker
Red Corner
VS
Ali Bagautinov
Blue Corner
+135
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-145
(59%)
1492
Elo
1491
36
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'3"
Height
5'4"
170.18 cm
Reach
165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John Lineker
oldest →
W
vs John Dodson · Oct 16
L
vs TJ Dillashaw · Dec 16
W
vs Marlon Vera · Oct 17
W
KOvs Brian Kelleher · May 18
L
vs Cory Sandhagen · Apr 19
latest
Ali Bagautinov
oldest →
W
vs Tim Elliott · Nov 13
L
vs Demetrious Johnson · Jun 14
L
vs Joseph Benavidez · Oct 15
W
vs Geane Herrera · Jun 16
L
vs Kyoji Horiguchi · Nov 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John LinekerMetricAli Bagautinov
5.36
Strikes / min
2.85
4.27
Strikes absorbed / min
3.09
56%
Strike defense
52%
0.56
TDs / 15 min
2.51
67%
Takedown defense
65%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.09Δ 1.33 — meaningful gap-0.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1545 vs 1532Strikes52.4 vs 40.5Takedowns0.4 vs 2.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.50Form0.8 vs 1.0
John LinekerAli Bagautinov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
John Lineker(10 fights)Ali Bagautinov(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red +2.5|Blue -2.5
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red +21.0|Blue -21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John LinekerTargetAli Bagautinov

By target zone

5
19% acc · 19%
Head
30
42% acc · 61%
21
81% acc · 78%
Body
17
94% acc · 35%
1
50% acc · 4%
Leg
2
100% acc · 4%

By position

11
34% acc · 41%
Distance
19
42% acc · 39%
10
67% acc · 37%
Clinch
12
71% acc · 24%
6
86% acc · 22%
Ground
18
60% acc · 37%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
John Lineker rounds
1
even
2
Ali Bagautinov rounds
Round 1Ali Bagautinov edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
6Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
3:24Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:18
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:33Control
Round 3Ali Bagautinov edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:03
20Sig. strikes
4Takedowns
3:23Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
27 / 54
Sig Strikes
49 / 92
46.7%
Sig Str %
53.7%
52 / 81
Total Strikes
86 / 133
0 / 0
TDs
6 / 12
—
TD %
66.7%
2
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:21
Ctrl Time
7:20

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ali Bagautinov6 / 1725 / 392 / 21
1John Lineker3 / 521 / 250 / 02
2Ali Bagautinov23 / 5024 / 510 / 60
2John Lineker22 / 4226 / 460 / 00
3Ali Bagautinov20 / 2537 / 434 / 40
3John Lineker2 / 75 / 100 / 00

John Lineker

StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights16

Ali Bagautinov

StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights7