← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

John Howard won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1377

John HowardvsSiyar BahadurzadaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2 · Saturday, December 28, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

John Howard won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJohn Howard: WrestlervsSiyar Bahadurzada: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: John Howard wins(62.1%)

Actual result: John Howard wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Howard at +135 American odds

+$135 profit

$235 total returned

Tale of the Tape

John Howard

Red Corner

Siyar Bahadurzada

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-145

(59%)

1490

Elo

1377

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John Howard

oldest →

vs Ryan LaFlare · Apr 14

vs Brian Ebersole · Sep 14

KOvs Lorenz Larkin · Jan 15

vs Cathal Pendred · Jul 15

KOvs Tim Means · Dec 15

latest

Siyar BahadurzadaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Brandon Thatch · Mar 16

KOvs Rob Wilkinson · Sep 17

KOvs Luan Chagas · Apr 18

vs Curtis Millender · Dec 18

vs Ismail Naurdiev · Sep 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John HowardMetricSiyar Bahadurzada

2.15

Strikes / min

2.91

3.08

Strikes absorbed / min

3.23

51%

Strike defense

49%

2.70

TDs / 15 min

1.32

53%

Takedown defense

62%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.93evenly matched on net striking-0.32

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

John HowardSiyar Bahadurzada

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

John Howard(10 fights)Siyar Bahadurzada(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +113.9|Blue -113.9

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Layoff

Red -168.0|Blue +168.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John HowardTargetSiyar Bahadurzada

By target zone

43% acc · 60%

Head

25% acc · 48%

67% acc · 21%

Body

68% acc · 39%

100% acc · 19%

Leg

50% acc · 14%

By position

47% acc · 38%

Distance

26% acc · 50%

52% acc · 47%

Clinch

61% acc · 50%

78% acc · 15%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

John Howard rounds

even

Siyar Bahadurzada rounds

Round 1Siyar Bahadurzada edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control1:24

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:34Control

Round 2Siyar Bahadurzada edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control1:01

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:20Control

Round 3John Howard edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control3:29

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 89

Sig Strikes

44 / 120

52.7%

Sig Str %

34.3%

112 / 159

Total Strikes

83 / 162

3 / 15

TDs

1 / 2

21.7%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

5:54

Ctrl Time

1:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Siyar Bahadurzada	16 / 50	24 / 59	0 / 0
1	John Howard	9 / 25	27 / 44	1 / 6
2	Siyar Bahadurzada	23 / 52	34 / 63	1 / 2
2	John Howard	18 / 37	36 / 57	1 / 6
3	Siyar Bahadurzada	5 / 18	25 / 40	0 / 0
3	John Howard	20 / 27	49 / 58	1 / 3

John Howard

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11

Siyar Bahadurzada

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8