Welterweight

3 Rounds

Ryan LaFlare won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1491

John HowardvsRyan LaFlareUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs Nelson · Friday, April 11, 2014Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Ryan LaFlare won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJohn Howard: WrestlervsRyan LaFlare: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Ryan LaFlare wins(77.3%)

Actual result: Ryan LaFlare wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ryan LaFlare at -410 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ryan LaFlare has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Ryan LaFlare (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

John Howard

Red Corner

Ryan LaFlare

Blue Corner

+365

(22%)

Vegas Odds

-410

(80%)

1490

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John Howard

oldest →

vs Siyar Bahadurzada · Dec 13

vs Brian Ebersole · Sep 14

KOvs Lorenz Larkin · Jan 15

vs Cathal Pendred · Jul 15

KOvs Tim Means · Dec 15

latest

Ryan LaFlare

oldest →

vs Mike Pierce · Dec 15

vs Roan Carneiro · Feb 17

KOvs Alex Oliveira · Jul 17

vs Alex Garcia · Apr 18

KOvs Anthony Rocco Martin · Oct 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John HowardMetricRyan LaFlare

2.15

Strikes / min

2.89

3.08

Strikes absorbed / min

1.86

51%

Strike defense

63%

2.70

TDs / 15 min

2.13

53%

Takedown defense

58%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.93Δ 1.96 — meaningful gap+1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

John HowardRyan LaFlare

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

John Howard(10 fights)Ryan LaFlare(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John HowardTargetRyan LaFlare

By target zone

50% acc · 49%

Head

48% acc · 42%

91% acc · 29%

Body

89% acc · 50%

100% acc · 23%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

66% acc · 71%

Distance

50% acc · 44%

64% acc · 26%

Clinch

83% acc · 31%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

94% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

John Howard rounds

even

Ryan LaFlare rounds

Round 1Ryan LaFlare edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:23

27Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:41Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control1:25

Knockdowns1

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:54Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Ryan LaFlare edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:50Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 53

Sig Strikes

64 / 97

64.7%

Sig Str %

65.7%

73 / 92

Total Strikes

97 / 135

1 / 2

TDs

4 / 7

50%

TD %

61%

Sub Att

Rev

1:48

Ctrl Time

8:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ryan LaFlare	27 / 42	32 / 47	1 / 2
1	John Howard	15 / 22	26 / 33	0 / 1
2	Ryan LaFlare	20 / 29	33 / 45	1 / 3
2	John Howard	14 / 21	37 / 45	1 / 1
3	Ryan LaFlare	17 / 26	32 / 43	2 / 2
3	John Howard	6 / 10	10 / 14	0 / 0

John Howard

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11

Ryan LaFlare

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights10