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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Lorenz Larkin won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1490
Elo1491

John HowardvsLorenz LarkinUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · Sunday, January 18, 2015Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Lorenz Larkin won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:17

Style matchupJohn Howard: WrestlervsLorenz Larkin: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: John Howard wins(51.8%)

Actual result: Lorenz Larkin wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Howard at +167 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Lorenz Larkin has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Lorenz Larkin has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

John Howard
Red Corner
VS
Lorenz Larkin
Blue Corner
+167
(37%)
Vegas Odds
-178
(64%)
1490
Elo
1491
43
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'11"
182.88 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John Howard
oldest →
W
vs Siyar Bahadurzada · Dec 13
L
vs Ryan LaFlare · Apr 14
L
vs Brian Ebersole · Sep 14
W
vs Cathal Pendred · Jul 15
L
KOvs Tim Means · Dec 15
latest
Lorenz LarkinW2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Derek Brunson · Aug 14
W
KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jun 15
L
vs Albert Tumenov · Jan 16
W
vs Jorge Masvidal · May 16
W
KOvs Neil Magny · Aug 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John HowardMetricLorenz Larkin
2.15
Strikes / min
3.53
3.08
Strikes absorbed / min
2.74
51%
Strike defense
63%
2.70
TDs / 15 min
0.27
53%
Takedown defense
79%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.93Δ 1.72 — meaningful gap+0.79

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1467 vs 1460Strikes26.4 vs 30.6Takedowns2.5 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.45 vs 0.00Form-0.3 vs -0.7
John HowardLorenz Larkin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
John Howard(10 fights)Lorenz Larkin(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Grappler Score
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Layoff
Red -28.0|Blue +28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John HowardTargetLorenz Larkin

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
24
55% acc · 83%
0
Body
2
67% acc · 7%
10
91% acc · 100%
Leg
3
100% acc · 10%

By position

7
58% acc · 70%
Distance
17
46% acc · 59%
3
100% acc · 30%
Clinch
2
67% acc · 7%
0
Ground
10
100% acc · 34%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
John Howard rounds
0
even
1
Lorenz Larkin rounds
Round 1Lorenz Larkin edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:30
Knockdowns0
29Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:11Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
10 / 15
Sig Strikes
29 / 50
66%
Sig Str %
58%
10 / 15
Total Strikes
29 / 50
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:30
Ctrl Time
0:11

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Lorenz Larkin29 / 5029 / 500 / 00
1John Howard10 / 1510 / 150 / 00

John Howard

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights11

Lorenz Larkin

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights10