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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Jake Ellenberger won · KO/TKO R3
Elo1490
Elo1367

John HowardvsJake EllenbergerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko · Sunday, August 1, 2010San Diego, California, USA

Official fight result

Jake Ellenberger won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:21

Style matchupJohn Howard: WrestlervsJake Ellenberger: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: John Howard wins(53.3%)

Actual result: Jake Ellenberger wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Howard at +181 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jake Ellenberger enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Jake Ellenberger has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

John Howard
Red Corner
VS
Jake Ellenberger
Blue Corner
+181
(36%)
Vegas Odds
-196
(66%)
1490
Elo
1367
43
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'9"
182.88 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John Howard
oldest →
L
vs Ryan LaFlare · Apr 14
L
vs Brian Ebersole · Sep 14
L
KOvs Lorenz Larkin · Jan 15
W
vs Cathal Pendred · Jul 15
L
KOvs Tim Means · Dec 15
latest
Jake EllenbergerL4 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Matt Brown · Jul 16
L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Dec 16
L
KOvs Mike Perry · Apr 17
L
KOvs Ben Saunders · Jun 18
L
KOvs Bryan Barberena · Aug 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John HowardMetricJake Ellenberger
2.15
Strikes / min
2.47
3.08
Strikes absorbed / min
2.83
51%
Strike defense
60%
2.70
TDs / 15 min
2.04
53%
Takedown defense
86%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.93evenly matched on net striking-0.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1519 vs 1500Strikes15.0 vs 21.5Takedowns3.8 vs 2.5Sub Atts0.75 vs 1.50Form1.0 vs 0.0
John HowardJake Ellenberger

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
John Howard(10 fights)Jake Ellenberger(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +123.3|Blue -123.3
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red -48.7|Blue +48.7
Grappler Score
Red -49.1|Blue +49.1
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John HowardTargetJake Ellenberger

By target zone

9
35% acc · 53%
Head
22
46% acc · 58%
5
100% acc · 29%
Body
16
84% acc · 42%
3
100% acc · 18%
Leg
0

By position

7
37% acc · 41%
Distance
8
40% acc · 21%
9
75% acc · 53%
Clinch
15
79% acc · 39%
1
33% acc · 6%
Ground
15
54% acc · 39%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
John Howard rounds
0
even
3
Jake Ellenberger rounds
Round 1Jake Ellenberger edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:00
23Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
3:51Control
Round 2Jake Ellenberger edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:07
9Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
4:19Control
Round 3Jake Ellenberger edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:03
6Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:56Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
17 / 34
Sig Strikes
38 / 67
49.3%
Sig Str %
54%
42 / 60
Total Strikes
92 / 138
0 / 1
TDs
5 / 7
0%
TD %
77.3%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:10
Ctrl Time
9:06

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jake Ellenberger23 / 3642 / 622 / 30
1John Howard8 / 1224 / 290 / 00
2Jake Ellenberger9 / 2032 / 512 / 30
2John Howard6 / 1515 / 240 / 01
3Jake Ellenberger6 / 1118 / 251 / 10
3John Howard3 / 73 / 70 / 10

John Howard

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights11

Jake Ellenberger

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights19