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FIGHTDETECTIVE
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Welterweight
3 Rounds
John Howard won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1490
Elo1351
Daniel Roberts

John HowardvsDaniel RobertsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Vera vs Jones · Sunday, March 21, 2010Broomfield, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

John Howard won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:01

Style matchupJohn Howard: WrestlervsDaniel Roberts: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: John Howard wins(88.0%)

Actual result: John Howard wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Howard at -210 American odds

+$48 profit

$148 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Daniel Roberts enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Roberts (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

John Howard
Red Corner
VS
Daniel Roberts
Blue Corner
-210
(68%)
Vegas Odds
+175
(36%)
1490
Elo
1351
43
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'7"
Height
5'10"
182.88 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John Howard
oldest →
L
vs Ryan LaFlare · Apr 14
L
vs Brian Ebersole · Sep 14
L
KOvs Lorenz Larkin · Jan 15
W
vs Cathal Pendred · Jul 15
L
KOvs Tim Means · Dec 15
latest
Daniel RobertsL3 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Mike Guymon · Oct 10
W
SUBvs Greg Soto · Jan 11
L
vs Claude Patrick · Apr 11
L
vs Rich Attonito · Jun 11
L
vs Charlie Brenneman · Jan 12
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John HowardMetricDaniel Roberts
2.15
Strikes / min
0.73
3.08
Strikes absorbed / min
2.27
51%
Strike defense
46%
2.70
TDs / 15 min
2.46
53%
Takedown defense
40%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
2.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.93evenly matched on net striking-1.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes18.0 vs —Takedowns4.7 vs —Sub Atts1.00 vs —Form0.0 vs 0.0
John HowardDaniel Roberts

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
John Howard(10 fights)Daniel Roberts(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +139.2|Blue -139.2
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John HowardTargetDaniel Roberts

By target zone

4
67% acc · 67%
Head
7
41% acc · 100%
0
Body
0
2
100% acc · 33%
Leg
0

By position

2
50% acc · 33%
Distance
1
25% acc · 14%
0
Clinch
0
4
100% acc · 67%
Ground
6
46% acc · 86%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
John Howard rounds
1
even
0
Daniel Roberts rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns1
Control0:50
7Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:55Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
6 / 8
Sig Strikes
7 / 17
75%
Sig Str %
41%
8 / 11
Total Strikes
21 / 33
1 / 1
TDs
1 / 1
100%
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
1
0:50
Ctrl Time
0:55

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Daniel Roberts7 / 1721 / 331 / 11
1John Howard6 / 88 / 111 / 10

John Howard

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights11

Daniel Roberts

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights7