Welterweight

3 Rounds

Brian Ebersole won · S-DEC R3

Elo1490

John HowardvsBrian EbersoleUFC Prediction Result

UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · Saturday, September 27, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Brian Ebersole won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Brian Ebersole wins(70.0%)

Actual result: Brian Ebersole wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brian Ebersole at +220 American odds

+$220 profit

$320 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brian Ebersole enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Brian Ebersole (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

John Howard

Red Corner

Brian Ebersole

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John Howard

oldest →

vs Siyar Bahadurzada · Dec 13

vs Ryan LaFlare · Apr 14

KOvs Lorenz Larkin · Jan 15

vs Cathal Pendred · Jul 15

KOvs Tim Means · Dec 15

latest

Brian EbersoleL3 streak

oldest →

vs Claude Patrick · Dec 11

vs TJ Waldburger · Jun 12

vs James Head · Jul 12

vs Rick Story · Nov 13

KOvs Omari Akhmedov · Jun 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John HowardMetricBrian Ebersole

2.15

Strikes / min

2.32

3.08

Strikes absorbed / min

2.14

51%

Strike defense

56%

2.70

TDs / 15 min

1.70

53%

Takedown defense

61%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.93Δ 1.11 — meaningful gap+0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

John HowardBrian Ebersole

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

John Howard(10 fights)Brian Ebersole(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -146.0|Blue +146.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John HowardTargetBrian Ebersole

By target zone

48% acc · 45%

Head

40% acc · 43%

80% acc · 19%

Body

50% acc · 14%

94% acc · 36%

Leg

78% acc · 43%

By position

65% acc · 62%

Distance

44% acc · 65%

62% acc · 38%

Clinch

72% acc · 27%

Ground

100% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

John Howard rounds

even

Brian Ebersole rounds

Round 1Brian Ebersole edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:03

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:00Control

Round 2John Howard edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns2

Control3:07

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Round 3John Howard edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:56

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 66

Sig Strikes

49 / 94

56.7%

Sig Str %

50.3%

97 / 128

Total Strikes

104 / 156

2 / 4

TDs

1 / 5

33%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

4:06

Ctrl Time

3:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Brian Ebersole	17 / 24	31 / 43	1 / 1
1	John Howard	7 / 15	13 / 23	0 / 0
2	Brian Ebersole	4 / 12	33 / 43	0 / 1
2	John Howard	6 / 12	38 / 46	2 / 3
3	Brian Ebersole	28 / 58	40 / 70	0 / 3
3	John Howard	29 / 39	46 / 59	0 / 1

John Howard

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11

Brian Ebersole

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8