Welterweight

3 Rounds

John Hathaway won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

John HathawayvsPascal KraussUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller · Saturday, May 5, 2012East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

John Hathaway won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJohn Hathaway: WrestlervsPascal Krauss: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Pascal Krauss wins(72.3%)

Actual result: John Hathaway wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Pascal Krauss at +170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

John Hathaway

Red Corner

Pascal Krauss

Blue Corner

-185

(65%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John Hathaway

oldest →

vs Diego Sanchez · May 10

vs Mike Pyle · Oct 10

vs Kris McCray · Mar 11

vs John Maguire · Sep 12

KOvs Dong Hyun Kim · Mar 14

latest

Pascal Krauss

oldest →

vs Mark Scanlon · Nov 10

vs Mike Stumpf · Jan 13

KOvs Hyun Gyu Lim · Aug 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John HathawayMetricPascal Krauss

3.40

Strikes / min

5.45

1.80

Strikes absorbed / min

3.88

62%

Strike defense

59%

2.61

TDs / 15 min

1.53

60%

Takedown defense

60%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.60evenly matched on net striking+1.57

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

John HathawayPascal Krauss

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

John Hathaway(6 fights)Pascal Krauss(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +3.0|Blue -3.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Layoff

Red -133.0|Blue +133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John HathawayTargetPascal Krauss

By target zone

40% acc · 81%

Head

26% acc · 61%

71% acc · 15%

Body

56% acc · 15%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

89% acc · 24%

By position

39% acc · 69%

Distance

31% acc · 85%

70% acc · 10%

Clinch

67% acc · 6%

58% acc · 21%

Ground

100% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

John Hathaway rounds

even

Pascal Krauss rounds

Round 1John Hathaway edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control1:16

Knockdowns1

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:54Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2John Hathaway edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control2:20

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:25Control

Round 3John Hathaway edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns1

Control1:24

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

68 / 154

Sig Strikes

33 / 95

43.7%

Sig Str %

36%

123 / 219

Total Strikes

48 / 113

2 / 7

TDs

1 / 3

33.3%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

5:00

Ctrl Time

1:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Pascal Krauss	10 / 36	18 / 45	1 / 1
1	John Hathaway	16 / 48	40 / 72	0 / 3
2	Pascal Krauss	12 / 24	14 / 26	0 / 2
2	John Hathaway	20 / 40	28 / 51	1 / 2
3	Pascal Krauss	11 / 35	16 / 42	0 / 0
3	John Hathaway	32 / 66	55 / 96	1 / 2

John Hathaway

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights6

Pascal Krauss

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach—

Fights4