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Welterweight

3 Rounds

John Hathaway won · S-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1351

John HathawayvsKris McCrayUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Davis · Saturday, March 26, 2011Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

John Hathaway won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJohn Hathaway: WrestlervsKris McCray: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: John Hathaway wins(74.7%)

Actual result: John Hathaway wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Hathaway at -390 American odds

+$26 profit

$126 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

John Hathaway has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

John Hathaway

Red Corner

Kris McCray

Blue Corner

-390

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+320

(24%)

1490

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John Hathaway

oldest →

vs Diego Sanchez · May 10

vs Mike Pyle · Oct 10

vs Pascal Krauss · May 12

vs John Maguire · Sep 12

KOvs Dong Hyun Kim · Mar 14

latest

Kris McCrayL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Court McGee · Jun 10

SUBvs Carlos Eduardo Rocha · Nov 10

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John HathawayMetricKris McCray

3.40

Strikes / min

2.69

1.80

Strikes absorbed / min

2.57

62%

Strike defense

54%

2.61

TDs / 15 min

2.88

60%

Takedown defense

38%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.60Δ 1.48 — meaningful gap+0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

John HathawayKris McCray

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

John Hathaway(6 fights)Kris McCray(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +139.3|Blue -139.3

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +2.4|Blue -2.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John HathawayTargetKris McCray

By target zone

41% acc · 65%

Head

36% acc · 31%

92% acc · 28%

Body

87% acc · 42%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

87% acc · 27%

By position

42% acc · 53%

Distance

40% acc · 40%

77% acc · 23%

Clinch

89% acc · 33%

59% acc · 23%

Ground

93% acc · 27%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

John Hathaway rounds

even

Kris McCray rounds

Round 1Kris McCray edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:04

26Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:02Control

Round 2Kris McCray edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:59

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:24Control

Round 3John Hathaway edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns3

Control3:15

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:10Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 85

Sig Strikes

48 / 80

50.7%

Sig Str %

59.7%

207 / 299

Total Strikes

133 / 177

3 / 6

TDs

3 / 7

50%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

4:18

Ctrl Time

7:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kris McCray	26 / 38	58 / 74	2 / 4	0
1	John Hathaway	12 / 22	54 / 73	0 / 0	3
2	Kris McCray	15 / 31	57 / 74	1 / 2	0
2	John Hathaway	16 / 33	46 / 72	0 / 3	1
3	Kris McCray	7 / 11	18 / 29	0 / 1	0
3	John Hathaway	15 / 30	107 / 154	3 / 3	0

John Hathaway

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights6

Kris McCray

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights3