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Welterweight
3 Rounds
John Hathaway won · U-DEC R3
Elo1490
Elo1352

John HathawayvsJohn MaguireUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic · Saturday, September 29, 2012Nottingham, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

John Hathaway won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJohn Hathaway: WrestlervsJohn Maguire: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: John Maguire wins(53.9%)

Actual result: John Hathaway wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Maguire at +235 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • John Maguire has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors John Maguire (53.5%).
  • John Hathaway has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

John Hathaway
Red Corner
VS
John Maguire
Blue Corner
-255
(72%)
Vegas Odds
+235
(30%)
1490
Elo
1352
39
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
5'9"
190.5 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John Hathaway
oldest →
W
vs Diego Sanchez · May 10
L
vs Mike Pyle · Oct 10
W
vs Kris McCray · Mar 11
W
vs Pascal Krauss · May 12
L
KOvs Dong Hyun Kim · Mar 14
latest
John MaguireL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Justin Edwards · Nov 11
W
SUBvs DaMarques Johnson · Apr 12
L
vs Matthew Riddle · Nov 12
L
vs Mitch Clarke · Jun 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John HathawayMetricJohn Maguire
3.40
Strikes / min
1.41
1.80
Strikes absorbed / min
2.44
62%
Strike defense
65%
2.61
TDs / 15 min
2.80
60%
Takedown defense
77%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.60Δ 2.63 — meaningful gap-1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1535 vs 1537Strikes48.9 vs 16.5Takedowns2.7 vs 4.5Sub Atts1.00 vs 1.50Form0.7 vs 1.0
John HathawayJohn Maguire

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
John Hathaway(6 fights)John Maguire(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +138.1|Blue -138.1
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red +1.9|Blue -1.9
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -21.0|Blue +21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John HathawayTargetJohn Maguire

By target zone

20
18% acc · 49%
Head
11
28% acc · 85%
7
64% acc · 17%
Body
0
14
93% acc · 34%
Leg
2
100% acc · 15%

By position

28
24% acc · 68%
Distance
11
30% acc · 85%
1
100% acc · 2%
Clinch
0
0% acc
12
63% acc · 29%
Ground
2
67% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
John Hathaway rounds
1
even
0
John Maguire rounds
Round 1John Hathaway edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:01
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:10Control
Round 2John Hathaway edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns1
Control4:09
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
5Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:33Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
41 / 135
Sig Strikes
13 / 41
32.7%
Sig Str %
21.7%
126 / 231
Total Strikes
31 / 60
1 / 2
TDs
1 / 3
50%
TD %
25%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
4:10
Ctrl Time
1:43

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1John Maguire8 / 209 / 210 / 10
1John Hathaway17 / 5917 / 590 / 10
2John Maguire0 / 15 / 60 / 00
2John Hathaway13 / 2786 / 1101 / 10
3John Maguire5 / 2017 / 331 / 20
3John Hathaway11 / 4923 / 620 / 00

John Hathaway

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights6

John Maguire

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights5