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Lightweight
3 Rounds
John Gunderson won · U-DEC R3
Elo1490
John Gunderson
Elo1351

John GundersonvsMark HolstUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Liddell vs Team Ortiz Finale · Saturday, June 19, 2010Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

John Gunderson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: John Gunderson wins(78.9%)

Actual result: John Gunderson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Gunderson at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • John Gunderson has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Mark Holst has 49pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Mark Holst has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

John Gunderson
Red Corner
VS
Mark Holst
Blue Corner
-200
(67%)
Vegas Odds
+170
(37%)
1490
Elo
1351
47
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
6'0"
175.26 cm
Reach
190 cm

Recent Form

Last 1 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John Gunderson
oldest →
L
vs Yves Edwards · Sep 10
latest
Mark Holst
oldest →
L
SUBvs Paul Sass · Oct 10
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John GundersonMetricMark Holst
1.04
Strikes / min
0.25
1.71
Strikes absorbed / min
1.67
58%
Strike defense
47%
1.67
TDs / 15 min
0.76
11%
Takedown defense
60%
2.00
Sub atts / 15 min
2.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.67evenly matched on net striking-1.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes1.0 vs —Takedowns1.0 vs —Sub Atts4.00 vs —Form0.0 vs 0.0
John GundersonMark Holst

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
John Gunderson(2 fights)Mark Holst(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +139.3|Blue -139.3
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John GundersonTargetMark Holst

By target zone

24
47% acc · 77%
Head
0
0% acc
5
100% acc · 16%
Body
1
50% acc · 50%
2
67% acc · 6%
Leg
1
100% acc · 50%

By position

8
38% acc · 26%
Distance
1
7% acc · 50%
1
50% acc · 3%
Clinch
1
100% acc · 50%
22
61% acc · 71%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
John Gunderson rounds
0
even
0
Mark Holst rounds
Round 1John Gunderson edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns1
Control4:15
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:15Control
Round 2John Gunderson edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns2
Control3:57
0Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:35Control
Round 3John Gunderson edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control4:17
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
31 / 59
Sig Strikes
2 / 16
53%
Sig Str %
10.7%
83 / 117
Total Strikes
5 / 19
4 / 8
TDs
1 / 1
55.3%
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
3
0
Rev
0
12:29
Ctrl Time
0:55

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Mark Holst1 / 52 / 60 / 01
1John Gunderson9 / 1825 / 381 / 30
2Mark Holst0 / 32 / 51 / 10
2John Gunderson11 / 2428 / 422 / 20
3Mark Holst1 / 81 / 80 / 02
3John Gunderson11 / 1730 / 371 / 30

John Gunderson

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights2

Mark Holst

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach—
Fights2