← All fights/Event page

Flyweight

3 Rounds

John Dodson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1500

John DodsonvsTim ElliottUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller · Saturday, May 5, 2012East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

John Dodson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJohn Dodson: Well-roundedvsTim Elliott: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: John Dodson wins(74.2%)

Actual result: John Dodson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Dodson at -510 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

John Dodson has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Tim Elliott (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

John Dodson

Red Corner

Tim Elliott

Blue Corner

-510

(84%)

Vegas Odds

+440

(19%)

1493

Elo

1500

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'3"

Height

5'7"

167.64 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John Dodson

oldest →

vs Pedro Munhoz · Mar 18

vs Jimmie Rivera · Sep 18

vs Petr Yan · Feb 19

KOvs Nathaniel Wood · Feb 20

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Aug 20

latest

Tim Elliott

oldest →

vs Victor Altamirano · Jun 23

SUBvs Muhammad Mokaev · Oct 23

SUBvs Sumudaerji · Dec 23

SUBvs Kai Asakura · Aug 25

DECvs Steve Erceg · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John DodsonMetricTim Elliott

3.20

Strikes / min

3.51

3.58

Strikes absorbed / min

3.00

61%

Strike defense

56%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

3.61

82%

Takedown defense

59%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.38evenly matched on net striking+0.51

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

John DodsonTim Elliott

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

John Dodson(10 fights)Tim Elliott(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -7.5|Blue +7.5

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John DodsonTargetTim Elliott

By target zone

27% acc · 68%

Head

33% acc · 81%

71% acc · 21%

Body

39% acc · 14%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

80% acc · 5%

By position

35% acc · 98%

Distance

33% acc · 85%

33% acc · 3%

Clinch

55% acc · 15%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

John Dodson rounds

even

Tim Elliott rounds

Round 1John Dodson edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control0:07

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2John Dodson edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns1

Control0:05

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Tim Elliott edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:00

44Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

80 / 233

Sig Strikes

79 / 225

34%

Sig Str %

33%

83 / 236

Total Strikes

81 / 227

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 5

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:12

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tim Elliott	17 / 63	18 / 64	0 / 1
1	John Dodson	24 / 64	26 / 66	1 / 2
2	Tim Elliott	18 / 72	18 / 72	0 / 3
2	John Dodson	25 / 74	26 / 75	1 / 1
3	Tim Elliott	44 / 90	45 / 91	0 / 1
3	John Dodson	31 / 95	31 / 95	0 / 1

John Dodson

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights17

Tim Elliott

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights21