← All fights/Event page

Bantamweight

3 Rounds

John Dodson won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1493

Elo1543

John DodsonvsNathaniel WoodUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · Saturday, February 15, 2020Rio Rancho, New Mexico, USA

Official fight result

John Dodson won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:16

Style matchupJohn Dodson: Well-roundedvsNathaniel Wood: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Nathaniel Wood wins(69.7%)

Actual result: John Dodson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nathaniel Wood at -150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

John Dodson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Nathaniel Wood enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

John Dodson

Red Corner

Nathaniel Wood

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1493

Elo

1543

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'6"

167.64 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John DodsonL3 streak

oldest →

vs Marlon Moraes · Nov 17

vs Pedro Munhoz · Mar 18

vs Jimmie Rivera · Sep 18

vs Petr Yan · Feb 19

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Aug 20

latest

Nathaniel WoodW4 streak

oldest →

vs Muhammad Naimov · Oct 23

vs Daniel Pineda · Jul 24

vs Morgan Charriere · Mar 25

vs Jose Delgado · Oct 25

vs Losene Keita · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John DodsonMetricNathaniel Wood

3.20

Strikes / min

5.64

3.58

Strikes absorbed / min

4.25

61%

Strike defense

54%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

1.35

82%

Takedown defense

73%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.38Δ 1.77 — meaningful gap+1.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

John DodsonNathaniel Wood

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

John Dodson(10 fights)Nathaniel Wood(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Recent Form

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John DodsonTargetNathaniel Wood

By target zone

48% acc · 79%

Head

38% acc · 52%

100% acc · 13%

Body

40% acc · 13%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

76% acc · 35%

By position

50% acc · 79%

Distance

43% acc · 87%

80% acc · 10%

Clinch

83% acc · 11%

80% acc · 10%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

John Dodson rounds

even

Nathaniel Wood rounds

Round 1Nathaniel Wood edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:20

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:27Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control1:35

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

Round 3John Dodson edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 72

Sig Strikes

46 / 99

61%

Sig Str %

52.7%

57 / 91

Total Strikes

68 / 124

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:58

Ctrl Time

0:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nathaniel Wood	23 / 55	33 / 65	1 / 1
1	John Dodson	15 / 23	22 / 30	0 / 0
2	Nathaniel Wood	21 / 41	33 / 56	0 / 0
2	John Dodson	18 / 41	23 / 46	0 / 0
3	Nathaniel Wood	2 / 3	2 / 3	0 / 0
3	John Dodson	6 / 8	12 / 15	0 / 0

John Dodson

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights17

Nathaniel Wood

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights14