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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Merab Dvalishvili won · U-DEC

Elo1493

Elo1542

John DodsonvsMerab DvalishviliUFC Prediction Result

UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · Saturday, August 15, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Merab Dvalishvili won

U-DEC

Style matchupJohn Dodson: Well-roundedvsMerab Dvalishvili: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili wins(88.7%)

Actual result: Merab Dvalishvili wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Merab Dvalishvili at -240 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Tale of the Tape

John Dodson

Red Corner

Merab Dvalishvili

Blue Corner

+188

(35%)

Vegas Odds

-240

(71%)

1493

Elo

1542

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'6"

167.64 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John Dodson

oldest →

vs Marlon Moraes · Nov 17

vs Pedro Munhoz · Mar 18

vs Jimmie Rivera · Sep 18

vs Petr Yan · Feb 19

KOvs Nathaniel Wood · Feb 20

latest

Merab Dvalishvili

oldest →

vs Sean O'Malley · Sep 24

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Jan 25

SUBvs Sean O'Malley · Jun 25

vs Cory Sandhagen · Oct 25

vs Petr Yan · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John DodsonMetricMerab Dvalishvili

3.20

Strikes / min

4.42

3.58

Strikes absorbed / min

2.80

61%

Strike defense

54%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

5.97

82%

Takedown defense

76%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.38Δ 2.00 — meaningful gap+1.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

John DodsonMerab Dvalishvili

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

John Dodson(10 fights)Merab Dvalishvili(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Layoff

Red +119.0|Blue -119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John DodsonTargetMerab Dvalishvili

By target zone

17% acc · 41%

Head

17% acc · 32%

56% acc · 33%

Body

44% acc · 8%

100% acc · 26%

Leg

100% acc · 60%

By position

31% acc · 96%

Distance

23% acc · 50%

33% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 50%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

John Dodson rounds

even

Merab Dvalishvili rounds

Round 1Merab Dvalishvili edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:55Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:04

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:50Control

Round 3Merab Dvalishvili edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:59Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 86

Sig Strikes

50 / 133

31%

Sig Str %

39%

31 / 90

Total Strikes

88 / 171

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 20

—

TD %

10.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

3:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Merab Dvalishvili	26 / 38	46 / 58	0 / 7
1	John Dodson	5 / 16	5 / 16	0 / 0
2	Merab Dvalishvili	9 / 37	17 / 45	1 / 8
2	John Dodson	12 / 35	14 / 37	0 / 0
3	Merab Dvalishvili	15 / 58	25 / 68	1 / 5
3	John Dodson	10 / 35	12 / 37	0 / 0

John Dodson

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights17

Merab Dvalishvili

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights17