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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Marlon Moraes won · S-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1419

John DodsonvsMarlon MoraesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · Saturday, November 11, 2017Norfolk, Virginia, USA

Official fight result

Marlon Moraes won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Marlon Moraes wins(51.9%)

Actual result: Marlon Moraes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marlon Moraes at +105 American odds

+$105 profit

$205 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marlon Moraes enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
John Dodson is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Marlon Moraes has lost 83% of fights by KO.
John Dodson has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

John Dodson

Red Corner

Marlon Moraes

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1493

Elo

1419

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'6"

167.64 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John Dodson

oldest →

vs Pedro Munhoz · Mar 18

vs Jimmie Rivera · Sep 18

vs Petr Yan · Feb 19

KOvs Nathaniel Wood · Feb 20

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Aug 20

latest

Marlon MoraesL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jose Aldo · Dec 19

KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Oct 20

KOvs Rob Font · Dec 20

KOvs Merab Dvalishvili · Sep 21

KOvs Song Yadong · Mar 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John DodsonMetricMarlon Moraes

3.20

Strikes / min

3.37

3.58

Strikes absorbed / min

4.53

61%

Strike defense

54%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

0.87

82%

Takedown defense

46%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.38evenly matched on net striking-1.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

John DodsonMarlon Moraes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

John Dodson(10 fights)Marlon Moraes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +73.2|Blue -73.2

Recent Form

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Striker Score

Red +2.2|Blue -2.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John DodsonTargetMarlon Moraes

By target zone

29% acc · 56%

Head

23% acc · 47%

83% acc · 35%

Body

65% acc · 33%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

56% acc · 20%

By position

40% acc · 93%

Distance

34% acc · 100%

67% acc · 5%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

John Dodson rounds

even

Marlon Moraes rounds

Round 1John Dodson edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Marlon Moraes edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns2

Control0:19

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:40Control

Round 3John Dodson edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:07

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:25Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 105

Sig Strikes

45 / 131

39.7%

Sig Str %

34.3%

47 / 109

Total Strikes

45 / 131

2 / 4

TDs

1 / 2

33%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:27

Ctrl Time

1:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marlon Moraes	19 / 61	19 / 61	0 / 0	0
1	John Dodson	19 / 41	19 / 41	0 / 0	0
2	Marlon Moraes	17 / 37	17 / 37	1 / 1	0
2	John Dodson	8 / 24	12 / 28	2 / 3	0
3	Marlon Moraes	9 / 33	9 / 33	0 / 1	1
3	John Dodson	16 / 40	16 / 40	0 / 1	0

John Dodson

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights17

Marlon Moraes

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights11