Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Bantamweight
3 Rounds
John Dodson won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1493
John Dodson
Elo1358

John DodsonvsManvel GamburyanUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans · Saturday, April 16, 2016Tampa, Florida, USA

Official fight result

John Dodson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:37

Style matchupJohn Dodson: Well-roundedvsManvel Gamburyan: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: John Dodson wins(60.7%)

Actual result: John Dodson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Dodson at -450 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Tale of the Tape

John Dodson
Red Corner
VS
Manvel Gamburyan
Blue Corner
-450
(82%)
Vegas Odds
+400
(20%)
1493
Elo
1358
41
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'3"
Height
5'5"
167.64 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John Dodson
oldest →
W
vs Pedro Munhoz · Mar 18
L
vs Jimmie Rivera · Sep 18
L
vs Petr Yan · Feb 19
W
KOvs Nathaniel Wood · Feb 20
L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Aug 20
latest
Manvel Gamburyan
oldest →
W
vs Cole Miller · Aug 13
L
vs Nik Lentz · May 14
W
SUBvs Cody Gibson · Sep 14
W
vs Scott Jorgensen · Jul 15
L
KOvs Johnny Eduardo · Nov 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John DodsonMetricManvel Gamburyan
3.20
Strikes / min
2.13
3.58
Strikes absorbed / min
2.83
61%
Strike defense
55%
0.71
TDs / 15 min
3.26
82%
Takedown defense
69%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.38evenly matched on net striking-0.70

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1561 vs 1517Strikes40.1 vs 20.7Takedowns0.9 vs 2.3Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.62Form0.1 vs 0.7
John DodsonManvel Gamburyan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
John Dodson(10 fights)Manvel Gamburyan(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +134.1|Blue -134.1
Recent Form
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red -52.0|Blue +52.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John DodsonTargetManvel Gamburyan

By target zone

15
83% acc · 94%
Head
1
100% acc · 50%
1
100% acc · 6%
Body
0
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 50%

By position

5
83% acc · 31%
Distance
2
100% acc · 100%
9
90% acc · 56%
Clinch
0
2
67% acc · 13%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
John Dodson rounds
0
even
0
Manvel Gamburyan rounds
Round 1John Dodson edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:04
Knockdowns1
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
16 / 19
Sig Strikes
2 / 2
84%
Sig Str %
100%
18 / 21
Total Strikes
2 / 3
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:04
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Manvel Gamburyan2 / 22 / 30 / 00
1John Dodson16 / 1918 / 210 / 00

John Dodson

StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights17

Manvel Gamburyan

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights9