Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Flyweight
3 Rounds
John Dodson won · KO/TKO R2
Elo1493
John Dodson
Elo1385

John DodsonvsJussier FormigaUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot · Friday, October 5, 2012Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA

Official fight result

John Dodson won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:35

Model Prediction: John Dodson wins(69.4%)

Actual result: John Dodson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Dodson at -255 American odds

+$39 profit

$139 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jussier Formiga enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • John Dodson is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Jussier Formiga has lost 57% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

John Dodson
Red Corner
VS
Jussier Formiga
Blue Corner
-255
(72%)
Vegas Odds
+235
(30%)
1493
Elo
1385
41
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'3"
Height
5'5"
167.64 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John Dodson
oldest →
W
vs Pedro Munhoz · Mar 18
L
vs Jimmie Rivera · Sep 18
L
vs Petr Yan · Feb 19
W
KOvs Nathaniel Wood · Feb 20
L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Aug 20
latest
Jussier FormigaL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Sergio Pettis · Oct 18
W
vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Mar 19
L
KOvs Joseph Benavidez · Jun 19
L
vs Brandon Moreno · Mar 20
L
KOvs Alex Perez · Jun 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John DodsonMetricJussier Formiga
3.20
Strikes / min
1.42
3.58
Strikes absorbed / min
2.34
61%
Strike defense
64%
0.71
TDs / 15 min
1.82
82%
Takedown defense
87%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.38evenly matched on net striking-0.92

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1531 vs 1500Strikes43.5 vs —Takedowns1.0 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form1.0 vs 0.0
John DodsonJussier Formiga

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
John Dodson(10 fights)Jussier Formiga(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +107.7|Blue -107.7
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red -49.7|Blue +49.7
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John DodsonTargetJussier Formiga

By target zone

20
22% acc · 61%
Head
8
22% acc · 89%
8
57% acc · 24%
Body
1
100% acc · 11%
5
100% acc · 15%
Leg
0

By position

23
23% acc · 70%
Distance
9
24% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
10
100% acc · 30%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
John Dodson rounds
0
even
0
Jussier Formiga rounds
Round 1John Dodson edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:00
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2John Dodson edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control0:19
Knockdowns2
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2
KD
0
33 / 112
Sig Strikes
9 / 37
27%
Sig Str %
23.5%
36 / 115
Total Strikes
9 / 37
0 / 2
TDs
0 / 5
0%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:19
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jussier Formiga6 / 206 / 200 / 30
1John Dodson9 / 439 / 430 / 20
2Jussier Formiga3 / 173 / 170 / 20
2John Dodson24 / 6927 / 720 / 00

John Dodson

StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights17

Jussier Formiga

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights16