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Flyweight
3 Rounds
John Dodson won · KO/TKO R2
Elo1493
John Dodson
Elo1491

John DodsonvsJohn MoragaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Khabilov · Saturday, June 7, 2014Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA

Official fight result

John Dodson won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 5:00

Model Prediction: John Dodson wins(56.2%)

Actual result: John Dodson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Dodson at -570 American odds

+$18 profit

$118 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • John Dodson has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

John Dodson
Red Corner
VS
John Moraga
Blue Corner
-570
(85%)
Vegas Odds
+480
(17%)
1493
Elo
1491
41
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'3"
Height
5'6"
167.64 cm
Reach
167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John Dodson
oldest →
W
vs Pedro Munhoz · Mar 18
L
vs Jimmie Rivera · Sep 18
L
vs Petr Yan · Feb 19
W
KOvs Nathaniel Wood · Feb 20
L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Aug 20
latest
John Moraga
oldest →
L
vs Sergio Pettis · Jan 17
W
vs Ashkan Mokhtarian · Jun 17
W
KOvs Magomed Bibulatov · Oct 17
W
vs Wilson Reis · Apr 18
L
KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John DodsonMetricJohn Moraga
3.20
Strikes / min
2.57
3.58
Strikes absorbed / min
2.55
61%
Strike defense
56%
0.71
TDs / 15 min
0.62
82%
Takedown defense
44%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.38evenly matched on net striking+0.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1545 vs 1535Strikes41.0 vs 33.8Takedowns0.6 vs 0.8Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.50Form0.6 vs 0.5
John DodsonJohn Moraga

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
John Dodson(10 fights)John Moraga(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +1.4|Blue -1.4
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red +88.0|Blue -88.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John DodsonTargetJohn Moraga

By target zone

14
32% acc · 52%
Head
3
9% acc · 38%
8
57% acc · 30%
Body
3
27% acc · 38%
5
100% acc · 19%
Leg
2
25% acc · 25%

By position

23
42% acc · 85%
Distance
6
12% acc · 75%
0
Clinch
2
67% acc · 25%
4
50% acc · 15%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
John Dodson rounds
0
even
0
John Moraga rounds
Round 1John Dodson edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:00
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Round 2John Dodson edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns1
Control0:53
Knockdowns1
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
27 / 63
Sig Strikes
8 / 54
42.5%
Sig Str %
15%
41 / 81
Total Strikes
8 / 54
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 2
100%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:53
Ctrl Time
0:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1John Moraga3 / 303 / 300 / 20
1John Dodson13 / 3013 / 300 / 00
2John Moraga5 / 245 / 240 / 00
2John Dodson14 / 3328 / 511 / 10

John Dodson

StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights17

John Moraga

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights14