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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

John Dodson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1427

John DodsonvsEddie WinelandUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · Saturday, April 22, 2017Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

John Dodson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJohn Dodson: Well-roundedvsEddie Wineland: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: John Dodson wins(72.9%)

Actual result: John Dodson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Dodson at -400 American odds

+$25 profit

$125 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Eddie Wineland enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
John Dodson is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Eddie Wineland has lost 50% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

John Dodson

Red Corner

Eddie Wineland

Blue Corner

-400

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+325

(24%)

1493

Elo

1427

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'7"

167.64 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John Dodson

oldest →

vs Pedro Munhoz · Mar 18

vs Jimmie Rivera · Sep 18

vs Petr Yan · Feb 19

KOvs Nathaniel Wood · Feb 20

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Aug 20

latest

Eddie WinelandL3 streak

oldest →

vs Alejandro Perez · Jul 18

KOvs Grigorii Popov · Jun 19

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Jun 20

KOvs John Castaneda · Feb 21

KOvs Cody Stamann · Jun 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John DodsonMetricEddie Wineland

3.20

Strikes / min

3.40

3.58

Strikes absorbed / min

3.76

61%

Strike defense

68%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

0.34

82%

Takedown defense

86%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.38evenly matched on net striking-0.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

John DodsonEddie Wineland

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

John Dodson(10 fights)Eddie Wineland(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +65.1|Blue -65.1

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John DodsonTargetEddie Wineland

By target zone

31% acc · 48%

Head

11% acc · 67%

88% acc · 44%

Body

54% acc · 33%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

By position

46% acc · 98%

Distance

15% acc · 100%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

John Dodson rounds

even

Eddie Wineland rounds

Round 1John Dodson edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2John Dodson edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3John Dodson edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 103

Sig Strikes

21 / 138

50%

Sig Str %

14.7%

48 / 103

Total Strikes

21 / 138

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Eddie Wineland	4 / 39	4 / 39	0 / 0
1	John Dodson	15 / 32	15 / 32	0 / 1
2	Eddie Wineland	10 / 47	10 / 47	0 / 0
2	John Dodson	18 / 25	18 / 25	0 / 0
3	Eddie Wineland	7 / 52	7 / 52	0 / 0
3	John Dodson	15 / 46	15 / 46	0 / 0

John Dodson

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights17

Eddie Wineland

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights16