Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors John Castaneda (54.1%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
John Castaneda
oldest →L
KOvs Daniel Santos · Oct 22W
vs Kyung Ho Kang · Nov 23L
vs Daniel Marcos · Jun 24L
vs Chris Gutierrez · Apr 25D
DECvs Mark Vologdin · Apr 26 Muin Gafurov
oldest →L
SUBvs Said Nurmagomedov · Oct 23W
vs Kyung Ho Kang · Jun 24W
vs Rinya Nakamura · Jan 25L
SUBvs Jakub Wiklacz · Feb 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
John CastanedaMetricMuin Gafurov
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.12evenly matched on net striking+0.85
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
John CastanedaMuin Gafurov
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
John Castaneda(9 fights)Muin Gafurov(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +6.3|Blue -6.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -49.7|Blue +49.7
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
John CastanedaTargetMuin Gafurov
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1John Castaneda edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:51
Knockdowns1
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:11Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Muin Gafurov edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns1
Control0:40
29Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:14Control
Round 3John Castaneda edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns2
Control2:45
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:30Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
