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Catch Weight
3 Rounds
Draw won · Decision R3
Elo1495
Elo1500
Mark Vologdin editorial illustration

John CastanedavsMark VologdinUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · Saturday, April 18, 2026Winnipeg, Canada

Official fight result

Draw

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJohn Castaneda: Pressure fightervsMark Vologdin: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • John Castaneda has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • John Castaneda has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • John Castaneda has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

John Castaneda
Red Corner
VS
Mark Vologdin
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1495
Elo
1500
34
Age
26
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'3"
180.34 cm
Reach
165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John CastanedaL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Daniel Santos · Oct 22
W
vs Muin Gafurov · Jun 23
W
vs Kyung Ho Kang · Nov 23
L
vs Daniel Marcos · Jun 24
L
vs Chris Gutierrez · Apr 25
latest
Mark VologdinNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John CastanedaMetricMark Vologdin
4.95
Strikes / min
6.93
5.07
Strikes absorbed / min
10.00
54%
Strike defense
40%
1.49
TDs / 15 min
0.50
75%
Takedown defense
57%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.12Δ 2.95 — meaningful gap-3.07
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
John Castaneda(9 fights)Mark Vologdin(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -5.2|Blue +5.2
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Grappler Score
Red -49.7|Blue +49.7
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

John Castaneda

StanceSwitch
Height66.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights8

Mark Vologdin

StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights0