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Catch Weight
3 Rounds
John Castaneda won · U-DEC R3
Elo1495
Elo1497
Kyung Ho Kang

John CastanedavsKyung Ho KangUFC Prediction Result

UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · Saturday, November 11, 2023New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

John Castaneda won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJohn Castaneda: Pressure fightervsKyung Ho Kang: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: John Castaneda wins(54.5%)

Actual result: John Castaneda wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Castaneda at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors John Castaneda (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

John Castaneda
Red Corner
VS
Kyung Ho Kang
Blue Corner
-115
(53%)
Vegas Odds
-105
(51%)
1495
Elo
1497
34
Age
38
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'9"
180.34 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John Castaneda
oldest →
L
KOvs Daniel Santos · Oct 22
W
vs Muin Gafurov · Jun 23
L
vs Daniel Marcos · Jun 24
L
vs Chris Gutierrez · Apr 25
D
DECvs Mark Vologdin · Apr 26
latest
Kyung Ho Kang
oldest →
W
vs Liu Pingyuan · Dec 19
L
vs Rani Yahya · Nov 21
W
vs Batgerel Danaa · Jun 22
W
SUBvs Cristian Quinonez · Jun 23
L
vs Muin Gafurov · Jun 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John CastanedaMetricKyung Ho Kang
4.95
Strikes / min
3.13
5.07
Strikes absorbed / min
3.32
54%
Strike defense
54%
1.49
TDs / 15 min
1.97
75%
Takedown defense
68%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.12evenly matched on net striking-0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1517 vs 1573Strikes4.7 vs 3.1Takedowns1.8 vs 2.0Sub Atts0.10 vs 0.80Form0.4 vs 0.8
John CastanedaKyung Ho Kang

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
John Castaneda(9 fights)Kyung Ho Kang(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -2.0|Blue +2.0
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Grappler Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff
Red +14.0|Blue -14.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John CastanedaTargetKyung Ho Kang

By target zone

47
46% acc · 42%
Head
59
35% acc · 67%
30
77% acc · 27%
Body
17
89% acc · 19%
34
92% acc · 31%
Leg
12
92% acc · 14%

By position

109
62% acc · 98%
Distance
82
42% acc · 93%
2
67% acc · 2%
Clinch
6
75% acc · 7%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
John Castaneda rounds
0
even
0
Kyung Ho Kang rounds
Round 1John Castaneda edged it
Sig. strikes33
Takedowns0
Control0:00
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2John Castaneda edged it
Sig. strikes38
Takedowns1
Control0:55
30Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3John Castaneda edged it
Sig. strikes40
Takedowns2
Control1:23
40Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
111 / 179
Sig Strikes
88 / 202
61.7%
Sig Str %
43.7%
119 / 187
Total Strikes
88 / 203
3 / 8
TDs
0 / 0
36.5%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:18
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Kyung Ho Kang18 / 4018 / 400 / 00
1John Castaneda33 / 5133 / 510 / 00
2Kyung Ho Kang30 / 8130 / 820 / 00
2John Castaneda38 / 6439 / 651 / 30
3Kyung Ho Kang40 / 8140 / 810 / 00
3John Castaneda40 / 6447 / 712 / 50

John Castaneda

StanceSwitch
Height66.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights8

Kyung Ho Kang

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights13