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Catch Weight
3 Rounds
Daniel Santos won · KO/TKO R2
Elo1495
Elo1523
Daniel Santos

John CastanedavsDaniel SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · Saturday, October 1, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Daniel Santos won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:28

Style matchupJohn Castaneda: Pressure fightervsDaniel Santos: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: John Castaneda wins(66.7%)

Actual result: Daniel Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Castaneda at -180 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors John Castaneda (52.9%).
  • John Castaneda has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

John Castaneda
Red Corner
VS
Daniel Santos
Blue Corner
-180
(64%)
Vegas Odds
+155
(39%)
1495
Elo
1523
34
Age
31
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'7"
180.34 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John Castaneda
oldest →
W
vs Muin Gafurov · Jun 23
W
vs Kyung Ho Kang · Nov 23
L
vs Daniel Marcos · Jun 24
L
vs Chris Gutierrez · Apr 25
D
DECvs Mark Vologdin · Apr 26
latest
Daniel Santos
oldest →
L
vs Julio Arce · Apr 22
W
vs Johnny Munoz · Jun 23
W
vs JeongYeong Lee · May 25
W
KOvs JooSang Yoo · Oct 25
L
KOvs Dooho Choi · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John CastanedaMetricDaniel Santos
4.95
Strikes / min
4.76
5.07
Strikes absorbed / min
5.03
54%
Strike defense
51%
1.49
TDs / 15 min
3.01
75%
Takedown defense
73%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.12evenly matched on net striking-0.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1519 vs 1485Strikes4.7 vs 4.3Takedowns1.8 vs 1.9Sub Atts0.10 vs 0.00Form0.7 vs -1.0
John CastanedaDaniel Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801498151515331550← oldermost recent →
John Castaneda(9 fights)Daniel Santos(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -27.8|Blue +27.8
Recent Form
Red +1.7|Blue -1.7
Striker Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red +63.0|Blue -63.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John CastanedaTargetDaniel Santos

By target zone

45
51% acc · 79%
Head
52
47% acc · 75%
8
62% acc · 14%
Body
14
74% acc · 20%
4
100% acc · 7%
Leg
3
75% acc · 4%

By position

41
47% acc · 72%
Distance
53
46% acc · 77%
8
80% acc · 14%
Clinch
14
78% acc · 20%
8
89% acc · 14%
Ground
2
100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
John Castaneda rounds
0
even
1
Daniel Santos rounds
Round 1John Castaneda edged it
Sig. strikes40
Takedowns2
Control1:40
Knockdowns1
19Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:15Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Daniel Santos edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns1
Control0:24
Knockdowns0
50Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:37Control
1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
1
57 / 106
Sig Strikes
69 / 134
51%
Sig Str %
48.5%
67 / 118
Total Strikes
71 / 137
3 / 6
TDs
2 / 4
62.5%
TD %
50%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:04
Ctrl Time
0:52

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Daniel Santos19 / 4619 / 461 / 20
1John Castaneda40 / 6950 / 802 / 20
2Daniel Santos50 / 8852 / 911 / 20
2John Castaneda17 / 3717 / 381 / 40

John Castaneda

StanceSwitch
Height66.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights8

Daniel Santos

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights5