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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Daniel Marcos won · U-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1526

John CastanedavsDaniel MarcosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · Saturday, June 8, 2024Louisville, Kentucky, USA

Official fight result

Daniel Marcos won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJohn Castaneda: Pressure fightervsDaniel Marcos: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Daniel Marcos wins(58.1%)

Actual result: Daniel Marcos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors John Castaneda (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

John Castaneda

Red Corner

Daniel Marcos

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1495

Elo

1526

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'7"

180.34 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John Castaneda

oldest →

KOvs Daniel Santos · Oct 22

vs Muin Gafurov · Jun 23

vs Kyung Ho Kang · Nov 23

vs Chris Gutierrez · Apr 25

DECvs Mark Vologdin · Apr 26

latest

Daniel Marcos

oldest →

KOvs Saimon Oliveira · Jan 23

vs Davey Grant · Jul 23

vs Adrian Yanez · Dec 24

vs Montel Jackson · May 25

SUBvs Miles Johns · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John CastanedaMetricDaniel Marcos

4.95

Strikes / min

4.90

5.07

Strikes absorbed / min

3.79

54%

Strike defense

61%

1.49

TDs / 15 min

1.35

75%

Takedown defense

85%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.12Δ 1.23 — meaningful gap+1.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

John CastanedaDaniel Marcos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

John Castaneda(9 fights)Daniel Marcos(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -31.2|Blue +31.2

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -112.0|Blue +112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John CastanedaTargetDaniel Marcos

By target zone

35% acc · 43%

Head

54% acc · 72%

56% acc · 15%

Body

68% acc · 21%

78% acc · 42%

Leg

67% acc · 6%

By position

48% acc · 98%

Distance

54% acc · 83%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

85% acc · 17%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

John Castaneda rounds

even

Daniel Marcos rounds

Round 1Daniel Marcos edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Daniel Marcos edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control1:53

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:37Control

Round 3Daniel Marcos edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:19

Knockdowns0

44Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 123

Sig Strikes

98 / 171

47.7%

Sig Str %

56%

68 / 134

Total Strikes

101 / 177

1 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

12.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:12

Ctrl Time

1:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Daniel Marcos	28 / 52	28 / 53	0 / 0
1	John Castaneda	24 / 46	25 / 47	0 / 0
2	Daniel Marcos	26 / 54	27 / 55	0 / 0
2	John Castaneda	13 / 30	20 / 40	1 / 4
3	Daniel Marcos	44 / 65	46 / 69	0 / 0
3	John Castaneda	23 / 47	23 / 47	0 / 1

John Castaneda

StanceSwitch

Height66.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights8

Daniel Marcos

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6